Non-voters, and especially young people, are unlikely to be seduced by the e-voting gimmick. And even if they were enticed, we would not want them to vote if that was their only reason
for engagement.
Nine councils in the recent local government elections allowed votes to be cast electronically, either through machines
at fixed locations or via a range of remote technologies. These included internet voting, telephone voting and even SMS text messaging in some places. Early evidence suggests that these experiments were a success, with more people voting than in other recent local elections. Is this a temporary increase encouraged by the novelty of the new methods, or is it a sustainable improvement in turnout levels?
One of the main arguments for e-voting is that it will encourage non-voters, especially young people, to take part in elections. A survey for the Electoral Commission after the 2001 general election found that 66 percent of non-voters would have participated if they could have voted by telephone. A KPMG study in 2001 suggested that e-voting was one of the most popular applications for electronic government among citizens – second only to the electronic renewal of car tax. But, as any observers of election polls know, what people say in surveys and how they actually behave in elections is not always the same. Pre-election polls nearly always over report expected turnout.
Our recent research for a consortium
of central and local government agencies suggests that this appeal is likely to be, at best, temporary and, at worst, non-existent, especially among young people. The research, undertaken by a team from De Montfort University and the University
of Essex, was published last month by the Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions. It shows
that e-voting is unlikely to substantially change the pattern of who votes and who does not.
As part of the research, the survey company BMRB asked a random sample
of internet users whether they would use
the internet to vote or to play the National Lottery. In total, 38 percent of internet users would play the National Lottery but 66 percent would vote through this technology. Superficially, a triumph for e-voting!
The distribution of those who would vote in this way by age group, however, reveals some stark truths. Less than half of those aged under 20 would use the internet for voting, while 74 percent of those in the 35 to 44 age group would do so. Even in the over-55 age group, 70 percent of internet users would vote electronically, compared with 65 percent of the 20 to 25 age group. Older internet users are much more likely to vote electronically than younger people, reflecting the broader pattern of voting behaviour that we know about.
Internet use, of course, is differentially distributed around the population. Younger people and those from higher socio-economic groups are more likely to have access to the internet than older or less wealthy people. However, this data holds such variables constant. All respondents to this survey were already internet users. Consequently, given that younger people are among the most likely to have internet access, but are also the least likely to use it for voting, it seems unlikely that e-voting will have a significant effect on turnout.
There is always, of course, the novelty factor. New forms of voting, especially those using cutting-edge technologies, may encourage people to vote because it is a gimmick. The novelty factor may increase turnout, at least in the short term. But are such votes really desirable? Do we really want political representatives elected at random by people who care more for the way in which they vote than for whom they vote? Such gimmicks do not engage citizens with politics. They simply trivialise one of the cornerstones of democracy, bringing it down to the level of Saturday evening entertainment. If e-voting is pursued on this basis, then we really will get the politicians we deserve (including, possibly, many more independent mayors dressed as monkeys!).
These findings do not invalidate e-voting as a means of modernising aspects of our democracy. However, they do urge both caution and realism. E-voting will not alter radically the balance between who votes and who does not – neither should we want it to.