The sharp right turn that George W Bush took upon winning the US Presidential election should have surprised no-one. Not only had he been a reliably rightwing governor of Texas, beneath his compassionate conservative campaign rhetoric lay a classic Reaganite agenda: cut taxes, shrink government and build up the armed forces. But, ever since he came to office eighteen months ago, the shadow of his father s failed administration has hung over Dubya s presidency. George Bush senior s defeat in 1992 was due to a weak economy, a perception that the President cared little for domestic affairs, and a revitalised Democratic Party, led by Bill Clinton. It is this combination of factors which, in part, is beginning to cause Bush junior difficulties today.
As he reaches the mid-point of his presidency, it s obvious Bush is keen to avoid the mistakes he perceives his father to have made. But with half of Americans now saying the country is headed on the wrong tracks for the first time this year, a greater number than think it is on the right tracks and with the President s approval ratings finally beginning to drop from their post-9/11 stratospheric levels, is Bush II heading for the same fate as Bush I? Fewer than half of Americans, furthermore, say they would vote to re-elect Bush if the presidential election were held today. But it s worth remembering that, less than two years before his defeat and in the aftermath of the Gulf War, Bush senior had a 91 percent approval rating and was widely considered a sure bet for re-election.
While Bush remains, in the eyes of many Americans, a competent commander-in-chief, it is his ability to handle domestic issues which is now coming under intense scrutiny. The US economy has now emerged from the shallow recession into which it slipped in 2000. However, the recovery is proving somewhat slower than many had predicted and there are fears of a dip back into recession next year. Consumer confidence, shaken by stockmarket turbulence, is low. The dramatic share price falls on Wall Street have caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop by the same 24 percent decline which marked the first eighteen months of Herbert Hoover s presidency a period which included the 1929 Wall Street crash.
But Americans are not simply worried about the value of their shares and pensions. The corporate scandals are especially damaging to an administration which had done little to disguise its deification of big business. And the past business dealings of both Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have caused embarassment.The President s speeches promising to crackdown on corporate fraud were widely seen as weak, and he s now been forced into signing tougher measures pushed through Congress by the Democrats.
After a difficult year, the Democrats hopes of holding the Senate and regaining the House of Representatives in this year s mid-term elections have strengthened, with the party opening up a small lead over the Republicans. However, choosing a presidential nominee will be difficult: although a number of candidates have emerged, former Vice President Al Gore shows all the signs that he may run again. Although he has a good chance of being nominated, many in the party are convinced he cannot beat Bush.
With the presidential election still two years away, developments in the war on terror and any possible military action to remove Saddam Hussein could be major factors in determining Bush s re-election hopes. But to gamble everything on foreign policy could be dangerous for the President his father should be able to remind him why.