There appears to be a deep irony about political life in early 21st-century Britain. On the one hand, thanks to the internet, it has never been easier for citizens to acquire information about what is happening in politics and to say what they think the government should do. Yet on the other hand, judging by the record low turnout at last year’s general election, never before have so many people had so little interest in the political decisions being made on their behalf. Rather than looking forward to a new era of political engagement, it appears we must look forward to an age of apathy.
But does low turnout at elections necessarily indicate voters have lost interest in politics, let alone that they have become disillusioned about those who seek high office? Perhaps a low turnout tells us more about the choice – or rather lack of choice – provided by the parties? Maybe the answer to whether Britain is destined to enjoy an age of apathy does not depend on attempts to ‘reconnect’ voters with their political system through a mixture of citizenship lessons, advertising campaigns, new kinds of political coverage on television and ‘e-democracy’. Rather, perhaps it depends on whether in future voters believe that they are being faced with a real choice to make.
Recently published analysis of data collected by the National Centre for Social Research’s British Social Attitudes survey immediately after last year’s general election casts new light on the answers to these questions. It suggests that while voters have become more cynical about politics and politicians in recent years, they are pretty much as engaged and as interested in politics now as they were a decade ago – when nearly 20 percent more people were willing to turn out and vote than did in 2001.
What has changed is the extent to which voters believe there is much difference between the parties and the degree to which there is real competition between the country’s two main political parties. Whether voters return to the polling booths – or indeed are persuaded to register their vote on the internet – will depend on whether elections are thought to offer a choice and not on whether new ways can be found of stimulating the interest of the electorate.
True, it is not the case that large sections of the electorate follow the ups and downs of political life with rabid interest. Only just over three in ten say that they have a ‘great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of interest in politics. But this figure was exactly the same a decade ago. And while interest may not be widespread, a sense of duty about the obligations of citizenship still is. Nearly two-thirds of voters say that ‘it’s everyone’s duty to vote’, again little different from ten years ago. Little reason here, then, to believe that voters have become more difficult to get to the polls.
Cynicism is more widespread, however. Labour’s early hopes that it would restore the public’s faith in politicians by implementing a programme of constitutional reform and eradicating ‘sleaze’ have not been realised. If anything the public is even more cynical than ever before. Only just over a quarter now say that they trust governments of either party to put the interests of the nation above those of their own party, ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’. After the 1997 election a third still took that view, while after the 1987 election, long before most commentators had even learnt how to spell ‘sleaze’, nearly half did so.
However, contrary to what is often assumed, cynicism is not the wellspring of abstention. Those who say they only trust governments to put the nation’s interests first ‘some of the time’ are only five percent less likely to vote than those who trust them ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’. Only amongst the relatively small minority (around one in five voters), who ‘almost never’ trust governments, is turnout noticeably lower. It seems that for every voter who goes to the polls in thanksgiving for the way they are being governed there is another who sees it as a chance to register their dissatisfaction.
In any event, while cynicism may be more widespread, so also is the perception that there is little difference between the parties. Just 17 percent believed there was a ‘great difference’ between Conservative and Labour at the last election. At no other previous election since 1964 had this figure fallen below as much as 33 percent. Indeed, in the 1980s, well over 80 percent felt there was a great difference. Voters have clearly noticed New Labour’s move to the centre ground, and the resulting difficulties the Tories have had in putting clear blue water between themselves and their opponents. And unless voters have a strong personal interest in politics, they soon stop going to the polls if they do not see much difference between the parties.
It seems likely that voters will have noticed too that the 2001 election campaign was a one-horse race. Of course, they had given the same message in 1997. But at least there was still the prospect of the incumbent government being tossed out of office to savour. Meanwhile this was the first time ever that the opinion polls had declared there was no contest for the second election in a row. Indeed, the message that the Conservatives pose no real threat to Labour’s dominance has been almost unending since ‘Black Wednesday’ in September 1992. At least Neil Kinnock occasionally put his nose ahead of Margaret Thatcher in the polls.
In any event, what is clear is that turnout fell most amongst those who would be expected to be most in need of the stimulus of a clear and exciting choice to be persuaded to go to the polls. Participation fell by no less than 28 points compared with 1997 amongst those who do not profess any interest in politics. In contrast it fell by only six points amongst political anoraks. Turnout fell in 2001 not because of the arrival of a newly disengaged section of the electorate but rather because those who were already relatively disengaged decided that the choice that they were being offered was simply not worth the bother.
So the key to the future of turnout in Britain depends not so much on whether voters change but rather whether parties do. At present at least, there seems no reason why 70 percent plus turnouts should not be registered once more at general elections. But whether they are or not depends on whether the Conservative Party (or else an alternative opposition party) becomes electorally competitive once more and whether a bigger ideological gap opens up between the parties than has been the case in the recent past.
But as well as perhaps being unwelcome to many inside the Labour Party, neither development can be guaranteed. For many commentators, New Labour’s move to the centre is a reflection of the reality that in a post-communist, globalised world there are no big choices left to make any more about what kind of society and economy we want to have. All that divides the parties is their relative ability to manage capitalism. Meanwhile, there is certainly no law of politics that says that the Conservatives must recover. Britain may perhaps for all practical purposes have become a one-party state. But if it has, then we should not expect many voters to think that voting is worth the effort, no matter how easy the internet might make it to do so in future.
- For further details see C. Bromley and J. Curtice, ‘Where have all the voters gone?’, in British Social Attitudes: the 19th report, published by Sage