Uncle Sam is becoming Don Pedro. Under recent proposals made by President George Bush, an estimated eight million undocumented workers in the US, and foreign workers seeking jobs in the US, will be able to apply for a new three-year work permit, offering legal status and the chance freely to leave and enter the country.
Bush’s plan is the product of long-term socio-economic changes and short-term politics. Offering undocumented migrants the chance to ‘come out of hiding’ is a deliberate move into the centre ground of so-called compassionate conservatism in a presidential election year. He is reaching out – as he did in 2000 – to the increasingly large and powerful Hispanic vote.
This is not simply about temporary electoral advantage. It is a response to seismic shifts in the social, economic and cultural landscape of the US caused by successive waves of Latino immigration and higher birth rates amongst Latino families. In July 2002, Hispanics became the largest ethnic minority in the US, numbering 38.8 million, compared to 38.3 million African-Americans. Hispanics have accounted for half of the country’s population growth since the turn of the new century, and projections suggest that shortly after 2050, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority group.
Yet despite this growing importance of the Hispanic vote, Bush’s proposal will still leave large swathes of urban America seriously disenfranchised. Without a clear route to citizenship, large migrant populations in urban areas will have legal status but not voting rights.
The problem of citizenship and permanent status notwithstanding, the Bush plan should give pause for thought to conservative thinkers in the UK. The wave of anti-immigration sentiment in Britain, stoked up by groups like Migration Watch UK, threatens to do serious damage to our community cohesion and future economic prosperity.
The UK and Ireland stand alone in allowing unrestricted access to labour markets when the new members join the EU.
If we look beyond the headlines and hype, it is clear that EU enlargement presents an opportunity rather than a threat for the UK. Evidence suggests that the number of migrants coming to the UK after May Day is likely to be small and that those who do come have the potential to improve our economic welfare.
What we know about the estimated one million Eastern European citizens already living within the EU suggests no need for alarm for the UK. Flows might peak in the first few years after free movement is permitted but then reduce gradually as the new members catch up economically. Even when the stock of Eastern European migrants living within the borders of existing EU members peaks at some four million around 2030, less than five percent of them (around 180,000 people) are likely to be living in the UK.
Many of the migrants from accession countries will have skills – like engineering, plumbing and other trades – that we desperately need. At a more fundamental level, it is important to recognise that labour migration has always played an important part of our country’s prosperity.
At the low-skill, low-wage end of the labour market, the relatively small influx of migrants from new EU member states is unlikely to have a significant impact on wages or employment levels.
On the other hand, it will offer an opportunity to regularise some of those who languish in the informal economy. The likelihood of people having to work in conditions like those that led to the Morecambe Bay tragedy can be reduced.
Migration is a fact of life in the modern world, and it needs management, not denial. This is not always cost free, but it can bring significant benefits.
The alternative of simply shutting the door is neither feasible nor desirable. Although it is calculated to extract political advantage, Bush’s plan may go some way to alleviating a terrible human cost. With a UK general election not much further away, we must ensure our own debate is informed by fact and not lurid tabloid headlines.