We have only months before the next general election. The latest it can be is May 2006, but we need to be ready for an election next year, perhaps in May or June. Whenever our chance comes, we must be prepared to take on the Tories, Liberals and Nationalists with a strong organisation and a clear message. This election takes Labour campaigners into uncharted waters. Labour has never before fought an election following two landslide victories, nor defended a record in government lasting eight years. We have never faced a Tory party so desperate, nor a Liberal Democrat party so cocky and confident.
The Tories are our main threat, and we mustn’t be complacent about their chances. The weekend after the Conservative party conference, the opinion polls showed little sign of a ‘conference bounce’ for Michael Howard. The ICM poll put the Tories nine points behind Labour, which on the face of it makes their chances of victory seem slim. Coming fourth in Hartlepool is hardlythe sign of a party on the march to Downing Street. But we should neverunderestimate their capacity for a comeback.
They have a loyal following, which stayed true throughout the disastrous reigns of Iain Duncan Smith and William Hague, and despite the sleaze-ridden Major years. The Tories’ leadership seems to have coalesced around Michael Howard’s comforting Thatcherite rhetoric. Their activists seem more galvanised than for a decade. At the heart of the Conservative party is an engrained belief that they are born to rule and that Labour in government is a troublesome aberration, rather than the will of the electorate. So it would be crazy to write them off. We have always said that what the electorate gives, the electorate can take away.
The Liberal Democrats have also smartened up their act. They present a serious challenge in some areas. Their policy agenda is as confused as ever – ranging from old-fashioned ‘tax and spend’, on one hand, to privatisation of the NHS on the other. The Orange Book of policy ideas – which includes scrapping the basis of the health service – is hard for them to dismiss as peripheral debate, as the book’s authors are largely Liberal frontbench spokespeople (what they precociously call their ‘shadow cabinet’).
People don’t really judge Liberal Democrat candidates on their policies, however – did anyone in Brent know or care what Sarah Teather’s policies on pensions, agriculture or reform of the EU were? No, people tend to vote Lib Dem as a protest against an incumbent candidate, council or government. They are masters of a certain disingenuous type of political campaigning: identifying a local problem, stirring up a campaign about it on a street-by-street basis, and taking the credit when someone else does something about it. We must be realistic enough to know that for some voters, the easy, superficial charms of the Liberal Democrats are tempting enough to contemplate voting against Labour candidates.
So, faced with the challenges and opportunities of eight years in office, with a string of tough decisions as well as popular ones to explain and defend, what is the task now for everyone who wants Labour to win the next election?
The jumping-off point is the recognition of the importance of local campaigning in this election. British general elections are becoming more of a series of local contests rather than a titanic battle between leaders. Local factors, issues and personalities will play a more salient role in deciding who gets returned to Westminster. That means that local party organisation has to be robust and ready. I’ve met with hundreds of party activists since the last election, in all parts of Britain, from the Tolpuddle Rally in Dorset to remote party branches half-way up Welsh valleys. I know the going has been tough for some party members, and that not all party activists have agreed with what the government has done. But I see in the faces I meet, and hear in the voices of the councillors and campaigners I visit, a deep conviction that we must prevent the Tories from returning to office.
So we need to reinvigorate local party branches, unions and co-operators to join together in a common fight against the old enemy. In this election, the ‘ground war’ (campaigning in the estates and streets) will be more important than the ‘air war’ (the national campaign fought via the media). What should branches be doing now? The Prime Minister’s speech to party conference in Brighton set out the ten areas of improvement a third-term Labour government would enact as a priority. Labour members should familiarise themselves with these pledges, as they will form the basis of the manifesto and our campaigning materials.
Next, local parties must reinvigorate those members who have become inactive in recent months. Phone them. Knock on their door. Remind them of Labour’s achievements and the Tory threat. Involve people through social events and fundraisers across the Christmas and New Year season, and invite them back into activity. By now, most parliamentary candidates have been selected and campaign plans drawn up. Start the new year with a flurry of activity – blitzing, campaigns, newsletters, hits in the local media and street stalls. Make sure everyone knows Labour is alive and kicking in every locality.
As the weather warms up, step up the door-knocking and street stalls. There is no substitute for meeting the voters, listening to their concerns, explaining why we deserve their support and reminding them what the Tories were like last time round. We can expect a professional, well-run campaign from Labour’s leadership at the centre, but what will determine the result in battleground seats is a lively campaign on the ground. With so many hard-working MPs and councillors, we have an advantage over our rivals, because we have a cadre of Labour representatives with roots in the community across the UK.
A third term of Labour in office is a prize none of us could have dreamt of just a few years ago. Just remember what it felt like when we lost elections and the Tories lorded it over us. Yet here we are, just months before our chance to win an historic third term. This chance has come only once in our party’s history and we are the generation to seize it. Let’s make the next few months count.