The next election is likely to bring important changes to the Liberal Democrats in parliament, with four prominent candidates selected to replace sitting MPs, and many newer faces hoping for victory. The most famous, and the only woman contesting a seat currently held by the party, is the former London mayoral candidate Susan Kramer. Kramer is fighting Richmond Park, the seat vacated by Dr Jenny Tonge. Because she is replacing another woman, Kramer’s selection will not improve the gender balance in the parliamentary party, which currently has only three women MPs.
The candidate likely to be watched most closely is Nick Clegg, a former MEP and rising star of the party, who has been tipped by some as a future leader. A Cambridge graduate and former policy adviser to Sir Leon Brittan, Clegg is replacing Richard Allan in Sheffield Hallam. If elected, he can expect to rise rapidly through the ranks.
Another candidate attempting to make the transition from Strasbourg to Westminster is South East MEP Chris Huhne, who is hoping to replace David Chidgey in Eastleigh. Huhne is an economist and former journalist who has written for the Guardian and the Independent. As chair of the Lib Dems’ commission on public services, he has championed an agenda of choice and competition in health and education. He is married to DTI chief economist Vicky Pryce.
Finally, David Walter, the party’s communications director, is succeeding John Burnett in Devon West & Torridge. An Oxford and MIT graduate, he was previously the BBC’s Paris correspondent and also presented a number of political shows on Radio 4. He is a former president of the Oxford Union.
The least well-known candidate to have been selected to replace a sitting Lib Dem MP is Dan Rogerson, a local activist who is standing in North Cornwall. Rogerson previously stood for parliament in North East Bedfordshire and served as deputy leader of Bedford Borough Council. His surprise selection occurred after the favourite, former MEP Robin Teverson, dropped out of the race. Rogerson narrowly defeated rival Judith Jolley, the preferred successor of retiring MP Paul Tyler, in a tortuous selection process.
As in 1997 and 2001, the Lib Dems will be hoping to increase their parliamentary representation at the forthcoming general election. The party has nineteen winnable seats – that is, those that they could seize on a swing of five percent or less. Four are currently held by Labour and fifteen by the Conservatives. The candidates with the best chance of winning include PR man Jeremy Browne, who is hoping to overturn a Tory majority of only 235 in Taunton; management consultant Chris Maines, who needs a swing of only 0.3 percent to take Orpington; and business adviser Simon Cordon, who faces a Tory majority of 861 in Surrey South West.
A number of the vulnerable Tory seats are held by high-profile frontbench figures, including Oliver Letwin, David Davis and Theresa May. The Lib Dems are also targeting Michael Howard, against whom haulage expert Peter Carroll is hoping for a 6.4 percent swing. The Labour seat that is most vulnerable is Cardiff Central, where Jon Owen Jones is defending a majority of only 659 against Lib Dem challenger Jenny Willott, who currently works for Victim Support. The next most vulnerable is Oldham East and Saddleworth, where lobbyist Tony Dawson is taking on Labour’s Phil Woolas. The only other seats where the Labour majority over the Lib Dems is less than ten percent are Bristol West and Birmingham Yardley, where the Lib Dem candidates are tax consultant Stephen Williams and millionaire entrepreneur John Hemming. Compared to the Conservatives, relatively few Labour MPs face a strong Lib Dem challenge.
How are the Liberal Democrats performing in terms of inclusivity of candidate selection? A quarter of their candidates in winnable seats are women, compared to a tally of only fifteen percent for the Tories. However, only one of those candidates, Susan Kramer, is in a seat the party already holds. Others with a reasonable chance of election include Justine McGuinness, who is taking on Oliver Letwin; Tessa Munt in Wells; and Jenny Willott in Cardiff Central. As a proportion of Lib Dem candidates in all seats, women make up 32 percent versus seventeen percent for the Tories. By contrast, eighteen of the 26 candidates that Labour has selected to replace sitting MPs are women, thanks in large part to the party’s policy of all-women shortlists, from which fifteen of those candidates were selected. The Liberal Democrats rejected proposals for all-women shortlists at their 2001 conference.
Despite recently electing their first ever Asian MP, the Liberal Democrats are performing less well in promoting black and minority ethnic candidates. Only six have been selected overall, and none of these are in seats that could be taken on a swing of five percent or less. Only one, James Main, who is of Chinese descent, has any chance of winning – he would require a 5.2 per cent swing to take Bridgewater from the Tories, and the seat is not even one of the party’s top twenty targets. Their next best hope, Nasser Butt, would require a substantial swing of 10.8 percent to take Mole Valley. This is a worrying sign for the party – despite heavily targeting black and minority ethnic voters in recent months, they have yet to demonstrate that their party structures are so accommodating.