Labour has been granted an historic third term by the British electorate. However, it has also inherited a radically altered electoral landscape in which many of the certainties of the past eight years no longer apply. What are the outcomes of the election likely to be exercising Labour strategists in the new term?
One factor thrown up by the results that is guaranteed to be causing headaches at Labour HQ are the new ‘super marginal’ seats that the party would stand to lose on a swing of just 2.5 per cent. The number of these seats has more than doubled, from 20 before the election to 43, a sizeable chunk of the government’s 66 majority. Labour went into the election knowing it could endure a swing of up to 6.5 per cent to the Conservatives and still retain power. However, even the slightest swing to the Tories at the next election could now see Labour’s majority swept away. The new political reality means there is no comfort zone left for the party.
Labour’s new front line starts in Crawley, where Laura Moffat holds a majority of 37 over her Conservative opponent, and continues through seats ranging from Edinburgh South in Scotland to Yns Mon in Wales, with seats in London and the South of England forming the majority of those on the list. The new battleground, where Labour holds a majority of five per cent or less, is overwhelmingly a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives, with the Tories challenging in 35 of the 43 seats. The Liberal Democrats are the main challengers in just six of the constituencies involved, with the nationalists Labour’s principal opponents in the remaining two. How issues play in these areas, where the government’s majority now hangs on a knife-edge, is likely to be crucial to Labour’s thinking in the third term.
It is not just in the ‘super marginal’ seats, however, that the government will need to watch its back. The election saw a new flank open up between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with the latter gaining a dozen seats from the governing party, and securing second place in over 100 Labour constituencies.
The Liberals made particular headway in constituencies with big Muslim populations, where opposition to the war in Iraq saw large numbers of voters deserting Labour. The Liberal Democrats’ share of the vote went up by four per cent above the national average in seats where more than ten per cent of the population is Muslim, while Labour’s vote fell by four per cent more than average.
Labour also did badly in many university seats, where the anti-war chattering classes and students unhappy with tuition fees went over to the Liberal Democrats. In Cambridge, Labour’s Anne Campbell was defeated on a swing of nearly 15 per cent to her Liberal opponent, David Howarth. Student discontent is also likely to have claimed the former Labour seats of Bristol West, Manchester Withington and Cardiff Central for the Lib Dems.
The Liberal Democrats did less well in Conservative marginals, such as Oliver Letwin’s seat of Dorset West, where the party’s perceived swing to the left probably cost them votes. With the Liberal Democrats now within ten per cent of the incumbent in nearly as many Labour seats as Conservative, the government will be watching closely to see which direction Kennedy chooses to take his party in the next four years.
Therefore, sandwiched between the Tories in the ‘super-marginals’ and a new electoral flank with the Liberal Democrats, Labour faces some difficult strategic choices as it looks forward to the next election. There is one thing, however, of which it can be certain: if it is to win a fourth term in office, it cannot afford to take a single vote for granted.