When the editor asked me to offer some advice to the Conservative party for a change, I have to say I had my doubts about agreeing. After all, the best news on 6 May was that the Tories had managed to raise their share of the national vote by less than one per cent. Tony Blair has now seen off John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. And while some of the shine may have come off New Labour – perhaps inevitably after eight years in power – there’s no sign of the Conservatives regaining any sparkle whatever.
On the face of it, this is unalloyed good news. But have you noticed how many people in the Labour party have been so quick to say that the Tories can and presumably will recover eventually? Could it be that the alternative – the Liberal Democrats succeeding in their aim of replacing the Conservatives as the main party of opposition – is too awful to contemplate? Do we really want to become the incumbent fighting elections as the more conservative, rightwing choice against an opposition claiming the mantle of radicalism and progressive politics?
So maybe giving the Tories a bit of advice is not such a dumb thing to do after all. I know, incidentally, that they don’t like us calling them Tories any more, but that’s a very good reason to keep on doing so. Tories, Tories, Tories, Tories, Tories. There. I feel better already.
I spent the 2005 election campaign commentating for the BBC. As the last of the results were coming in I was asked by a Guardian journalist waiting with me to appear on Breakfast TV if I was the last Blairite left standing. Not such a surprising question, maybe, given his paper’s view of the world these days. But it was a bizarre morning. The Guardian wasn’t alone in behaving as if everybody had lost the election. Charles Kennedy, Michael Howard and Tony Blair were all perceived to have had a bad night, and to have failed in their ambitions. Well, I’m sorry. The first bit of advice for the Tories has to be – we won, you lost, now think about it.
It was a good night, not a great one, for Labour. For the Tories, though, it was a disaster. I don’t blame Michael Howard for waving and smiling next to his victorious photogenic, young, female candidate in Putney but inside he must have known the extent of his defeat. His actions since 5 May suggest that he did.
Michael Howard is an astute, experienced and determined politician. We’re told he concluded that he simply didn’t have enough time after taking over the leadership to reform his party in readiness for the 2005 election. That, I’m sure, was a serious misjudgement. But, as a result, Mr Howard has proved a very important point that everybody in his party ignores at their peril. If Michael Howard couldn’t make more progress by fighting an old-fashioned Tory campaign based on fear and prejudice, with his party behind him and strong support in the media, then nobody can.
After 5 May, the Thatcher legacy in the Tory party must finally be over. She famously said ‘No, no, no’. She was talking about Europe, but ever since then her party has being saying ‘No’ to just about everything in modern Britain. No to the minimum wage, no to the New Deal and improved rights at work. No to a health service based on the principle of need rather than wealth. No to genuine opportunity for all in education. No to everything European, of course. And don’t tell me that those ‘Are you thinking what we’re thinking?’ posters weren’t meant to send a message of No to the non-white population of Britain.
In short, the Conservatives, for as long as many voters can remember, have been saying No to a modern, dynamic society that embraces diversity, respect, community and cooperation with our European neighbours. They have given a very good impression of disliking both the country they aspire to lead and most people living in it who don’t resemble their own predominantly white, ageing and illiberal party membership. It may not be an entirely fair impression, but they only have themselves to blame for that.
Belatedly, Michael Howard is doing something to begin to address the scale of the problem he’s leaving behind. Changing the leadership rules so the party membership no longer has the final say may not be a blow for democracy but at least it recognises that the members are part of the problem, not the solution. And those big promotions for the Blair/Browns of the Conservative party, David Cameron and George Osborne, are a strong signal to his colleagues that it’s time to embrace the future.
Whoever succeeds Howard will have to take on his party just as Tony Blair took on his after 1994. That means fighting real, not imagined, battles against the mindset and the instincts of the clear majority of Conservatives. Otherwise, the majority that counts – in the country as a whole – will never be won back. If anything, it’s a bigger task than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown confronted but the Tories shouldn’t kid themselves there’s any easy alternative. And, what’s more, it can’t be done quietly. The voters have to see
and hear the pain you’re going through or they won’t believe it’s for real.
For starters, what’s needed is a colossal fight over an issue dear to the activists’ heart. And it’s blindingly obvious what that should be. The Tories have been busy celebrating the massacre of the European constitution at the hands of the French and Dutch. Their only disappointment is at not being able to kill it off themselves with an even bigger British No. There it is again, their favourite word. Well, Europe isn’t going to go away and, unless the Conservatives want to take the suicidal route of recommending withdrawal, they are going to have to start saying Yes to something.
So my advice to the next Tory leader is try Yes on for size. It’s not such a big word. It won’t hurt to give it a go. Yes – we want the European Union to succeed and, Yes, we’ll do all we can to help make sure it does. Yes – for the first time in a generation we’ll come up with constructive proposals for the future. Yes – we’ll work with others to make sure Britain can succeed in Europe and that Europe can succeed in the world. Unthinkable? It might look like it, but isn’t that the point?
The more immediate question, though, is whether any candidate for the leadership can get himself (they’re all men, it seems) elected without kow-towing to the party’s long-established prejudices. In 1994 Labour was so desperate for a taste of success that it took a risk on a man who refused point blank to say what many in the party wanted to hear. The next Tory leader will only have the authority he needs to reform and modernise if the Conservatives are prepared, right here, right now, to recognise just what their defeat on 5 May signifies. If you ask me whether they are, I have to give a very Tory answer. No.