Before his death in May, Eric Forth, the right-wing Tory MP for Bromley and Chislehurst, told members of his local party that he would do all he could to prevent anyone from David Cameron’s A-list succeeding him as the Conservative’s candidate at the next election.
In June, that wish was honoured by the party members of this outer London suburban constituency. Bob Neill, the current leader of the Tory group on the London assembly, was selected to contest the seat over two candidates (one female, one Asian) from the A-list.
Forth would have no doubt been delighted with their choice. Neill, a white, 53-year-old male, is as far from being a ‘pseud’, ‘poseur’ or member of ‘London’s chi-chi set’ as the late MP for Bromley and Chislehurst could have possibly hoped for.
Cameron was quick to dismiss this latest upset for his A-list, drawn up to increase the number of women and ethnic minority candidates standing in safe and winnable seats at the next election. Writing in response to criticism of the list on the Tory website Conservativehome.com, he reiterated his determination to change a party in which more than nine out of 10 of its parliamentary representatives are white men: ‘We’ve been willing the means, it’s time we willed the ends.’
But the Bromley selection may yet point to deeper problems with the A-list, according to Rosie Campbell, Sarah Childs and Joni Lovenduski, authors of an article on the Tories’ new selection procedures in the latest Political Quarterly. The A-list quota of 50 per cent women and 10 per cent ethnic minority candidates may ensure that a more diverse pool of candidates is considered for selection. , without the additional safeguard of all-women shortlists to guarantee the selection of women candidates in safe and winnable seats, they argue, in the long run ‘it is unlikely that significantly greater numbers of women will be elected.’
Instead, the less robust measures Cameron has put in place with the A-list are likely to be undermined by to two related factors. First, the Conservative party’s traditional reluctance to interfere with the autonomy of local associations in the selection of parliamentary candidates. Second, the deep-seated idea in the party that candidates ought to be selected on their perceived ‘merit’, rather than gender or ethnicity. The Conservatives ‘must reflect on whether a system of selection that returns men in over 90 per cent of selections is really meritocratic,’ they conclude. ‘All the evidence is that the Conservatives are not ready for sex equality, that they need more time to get used to the idea.’
Are the Tories really as averse to a more representative party as the Political Quarterly suggests? A recent survey of Conservative association chairmen by More4 News found the majority to be in support of the new selection procedures Cameron has introduced. Of the 50 chairmen interviewed, 32 agreed with the principle of selecting PPCs from the A-list in safe and winnable seats, and 26 approved of the quota for women and ethnic minority candidates on the list.
It may be that, after three successive election defeats, the last of which saw a majority of women voters turn to Labour for the first time in British history, the Conservative party is finally coming around to the electoral necessity of a more representative party. However, the results of the latest round of selections by Conservative associations under the new rules certainly suggests they have yet to grasp the effective means of achieving it.
At the time of writing, of the 35 seats identified as safe and winnable by CCO, six (Bromley and Chislehurst, Central Devon, Mid-Derbyshire, Chippenham, Northhamptonshire South and Selby and Ainsty) had made their selections. Two of these seats (Bromley and Chislehurst and Selby and Ainsty) selected non-A list candidates, both of who were white men. Furthermore, of those six seats, only two (Mid-Derbyshire and Northamptonshire South) selected a woman, and one (Chippenham) an ethnic minority candidate.
If this pattern is repeated – bearing in mind that the safest Tory seats have yet to make their selections – the Conservatives can expect around a third of its candidates standing in safe and winnable seats at the next election to be women.
Compare this with Labour, who, before the 2005 election, used all-women shortlists to ensure that 50 per cent of its candidates standing in vacated Labour-incumbent seats were women, leading to a record 27 per cent female representation in the PLP in the current term.
Even on the most optimistic forecasts, the Conservatives will be a long way from achieving this target by the next election. The question is not, therefore, does Cameron believe in a more representative Tory party, but rather, how long will it take for him to get there?
Not so chi-chi
Progress’ guide to the names on David Cameron’s A-list
David Cameron’s A-list is a good deal less representative of the British population than the presence of lesbian business women (Margot James) and black farmers (Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones) might suggest, according to research conducted for the Times.
The newspaper found that the majority of the 100-strong list have had careers in business, the law or political research – the traditional background of most aspiring Conservative MPs. Only six of the A list were found to have had careers in the public services, despite the new leader’s recent efforts to befriend workers in the public sector. Furthermore, a third of the list had given Cameron their public backing in last year’s leadership contest.
So, in the spirit of open inquiry, Progress investigated the backgrounds of some of the lesser-known stars of Cameron’s A-list, and found some familiar Tory faces – and views.
Gavin Barwell: Former director of campaigning at Conservative Central Office.
Karen Bradley: Former policy officer at CCO. Fiona Bruce: Small-business women of the year 2003. Became PPC for Warrington South in 2005 after wining an open primary. Has written against same-sex adoption and civil partnership on the Conservative Christian Fellowship website.
Andrew Griffiths: Chief of staff to Hugo Swire MP, the shadow secretary of state for culture, media and sport.
Laetitia Gunn: Daughter of the Eurosceptic Tory MP, Bill Cash. Has been on Tatler’s ‘most invited’ list. PPC for Salford in 2005, having been rejected by Wyre Valley with the cautionary statement from local group leader, Stephen Cree: ‘She came to the interview, but the association felt she was not at the standard we wanted. We had far better candidates and we selected the best.’
Rebecca Harris: Parliamentary advisor to Tim Yeo MP.
Paul Maynard: Advisor to Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary and Cameron’s rival in the leadership contest.
Priti Patel: Head of the press office at James Goldsmith’s Referendum party from 1995 to 1997. Has said of the Conservatives: ‘Racist attitudes do persist within the party… there is a lot of bigotry around.’
Simon Walker: Former member of John Major’s Downing Street policy unit.
Sayeeda Warsi: PPC for Dewsbury in 2005. Made ‘vice chairman’ of the Conservative party in June last year. Has said that homosexuality ‘undermines family life’ and that ‘Labour reduced the age of consent for homosexuality from 18 to 16 allowing school children to be propositioned for homosexual relationships.’ Said she would fight to end ‘the promotion of homosexuality’ in last year’s election campaign.