The French socialist presidential hopefuls are entering the final strait. As next year’s presidential election approaches, and with party members electing their candidate by late November, the socialists seem stuck in endless disputes about the candidate who could best unite and represent them in that contest. But this is nothing new. Since the shock defeat of the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the party has struggled to find any sort of political unity.
Within the party, internal differences are personality oriented. Each political wing is affiliated to a figure, described as présidentiable, whose appeal to party members and voters rests as much with his or her personality as their specific policy proposals. But the divisions are also ideological, rooted in diverse perceptions of the role of the state in the economy and society, as well as in divergent opinions on the implications of globalisation. All possible candidates are making concrete proposals and the campaign does not appear to be dominated solely by American-style ‘personality politics’, as much of the media is suggesting.
Among the main party figures likely to declare themselves as potential candidates by the October 3 deadline, Ségolène Royal certainly appears to be the frontrunner, despite a recent dip in her high opinion poll performance. Her new and radical makeover, independent and unique position within the party, effective media strategy and unconventional proposals have made her popular, both with the media and the electorate. Her emphasis upon values – family, law and order, social justice, individual responsibility, respect – is widely praised. Royal’s ability to gather support within the party from both more left-wing figures, such as Arnaud Montebourg, or more centrist ones, thanks to references to Tony Blair and to the Swedish model, have strengthened her support within the party and the wider left.
The former education minister’s focus on day-to-day problems has proved popular among the public, if not amongst her own party colleagues, who fear she would not include any former ministers in her government if elected president. One sign of this is the 85,000 people who joined the party a few months ago in the famous 20 euros- internet membership drive in exchange for the right to have their say in picking the socialist presidential candidate. Considered a superficial and lightweight candidate with insufficient foreign and economic experience to become president by her opponents, Royal still has a lot to prove, but she appears the have best chance for the left against the right so far. And she is clearly no different from the party’s ‘elephants’ in terms of education and experience.
Despite being the best-placed socialist candidate, Royal still faces a great deal of internal criticism. Who are her potential challenges and what do they stand for?
Laurent Fabius, as the big winner on the left of the no-vote against the ratification of the European Constitution, will present himself as the only candidate who could garner the support of the far left if a left-wing candidate made the second round play-off of the presidential election. Openly anti-Blair, the former prime minister has contributed to the party’s drift to the left in recent months. He made specific proposals in favour of an increased minimum wage, state intervention in general, and against the forces of globalisation. Rather unpopular in the opinion polls, and highly disliked by some within the party, Fabius’ appeal to the far left might not be sufficient for him to win the nomination.
Lionel Jospin, another former prime minister, recently made his political comeback, having drawn lessons from his failed presidential bid in 2002. He is indicating a willingness to run for the presidential nomination as the unity candidate. Certainly more rigorous and experienced than Royal, he may, however, shy away from a bid if neither Dominique Strauss-Kahn nor Jack Lang, both former ministers, withdraws from the race. Their failure to do so would weaken Jospin’s claim to be the unity candidate and increase the risk of the former prime minister being knocked-out of the selection process in its early stages.
But the key question for Jospin if he were to win the nomination – which he could well do against Royal with the support of Strauss-Kahn, party chair François Hollande and others – is whether left-wing voters would trust and vote for a leader who announced his retirement from politics just as the socialists were facing their most difficult period after President Chirac’s re-election in 2002. This is a question that his opponents are sure to raise.
The third main contestant, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has long been considered a ‘social-liberal’ by the media. Betting on his solid political and governmental experience, he promotes radical reformism, and his media appearances, speaking on presidential topics such as France’s foreign, energy security or international development policies. Strauss-Khan is said to have a unique position within the party, in terms of party members’ support, contacts and experience. If Jospin and Hollande don’t stand as candidates, he could very well gather the support of those who do not believe in Royal’s chances against the right’s likely candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, and dislike Fabius. Short of that, Strauss-Khan, while insisting he won’t withdraw from the campaign, may be attempting to present himself as a future prime minister, which could form the basis of a potential deal with one of the other candidates.
The game is not yet over. Much depends also on the decisions taken by Hollande and Lang (although the former is unlikely to stand against his partner, Ségolène Royal, and the latter appears the weakest candidate at the moment), the potential alliances between the ‘elephants’, on the toughness of the internal campaign and on the candidates’ ability to differentiate themselves without risking the party’s unity. All are, after all, bound by the common platform recently agreed and voted upon by party members.
In the meantime, the party’s leaders must remember that personal attacks only increase the chances of a victory by the right. And party members must keep in mind that the best candidate will be the one most capable of uniting the party, gathering support on the left and fighting against a much more organised right and a powerful extreme right.