In 1998, beset by the fear that he would be remembered for all the wrong reasons, the outgoing president Bill Clinton aimed to salvage his reputation with a major peace initiative for Israel and the Palestinians, culminating in the 2000 Camp David summit.
Nearly ten years later and the sun is starting to set on Tony Blair’s time as prime minister. With the transition happening in all but name, the talk of Blair’s ‘legacy’ seems set to dominate the next few months.
In terms of international affairs, attention has turned to the Middle East. The regional stage for Blair’s most controversial foreign policy could also provide the setting for a final triumph. As he said in last year’s valedictory speech to annual conference: ‘until I leave office I will dedicate myself … to advancing peace between Israel and Palestine.’ Since then, Israel-Palestine has been at the top of his agenda. He has visited the region twice and made numerous foreign policy speeches, asserting that a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should be at the heart of any Middle East strategy.
The Labour government has always been committed to a resolution and to exploring creative pathways to it. Tony Blair and successive foreign secretaries have engaged in political and diplomatic initiatives, the Treasury has lead on exploring economic aspects of the peace process, and the Department of International Development has provided aid and other support mechanisms to the Palestinians. But recent efforts have taken on a new sense of urgency. Critics suggest this is reminiscent of a Clinton-style swan song, and whilst the government’s record of involvement renders this unfair, there are certainly lessons to be learnt from the ultimately unsuccessful Clinton process.
For the international community, the greatest frustration comes from there being a known solution (two states for two people) but no easy means of getting there. In encouraging the process, leaders can become tempted to try and jump to the endgame, forcing the solution to become a reality. Clinton’s Camp David surged towards final status negotiations in a way which bypassed what is a longer and more incremental undertaking.
A successful peace needs the will of the people and has to be as much as a bottom-up as top-down process. Leaders shaking hands in landscaped gardens will neither force militants to put down their weapons, nor settlers out of their homes. There are no clever shortcuts and nobody understands this better than Blair.
On his recent December visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories, Blair promised to bolster Palestinian security services (under the responsibility of President Abbas) to help return stability to the West Bank and Gaza after months of factional fighting. He pledged to channel millions of pounds of EU aid directly to security forces under the Palestinian leader’s control, and the US followed suit pledging $86m to Abbas’s private guard. If Abbas’s Fatah can eventually regain control of the Palestinian Authority, the international community will end their economic sanctions and Israel will have a partner to do business with.
Tony Blair’s experience and formidable international standing grants him the capability to move the peace process forward and prepare the path for future negotiations, however there is a good chance that the job will not be finished by the time he leaves office. The process will not work if it is unduly rushed but, with time and patience, allowing it to evolve at the appropriate pace, the ‘legacy’ will be clear.