Ehud Barak’s May victory in the Labor leadership primaries brought to an end his political sabbatical, simultaneously making him defence minister while charging him with reinvigorating his party’s membership.
We have to go back six years to comprehend the significance of this leadership election result. The Israeli peace movement compelled Barak, the then prime minister, to pursue final settlement negotiations with Yasser Arafat at the Camp David-Taba talks in 2000-2001. Barak was prepared to make difficult concessions including the offer of East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state and compensation for refugees. He got closer to reaching a peaceful settlement than any former Israeli leader of the past sixty years, but Arafat rejected the deal. What followed was the violence of the second intifada (uprising), resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians. Barak was subsequently penalised by the Israeli electorate and lost the premiership to the hawkish Ariel Sharon, leader of the Likud party. The Labor party suffered its biggest ever loss at this election.
After years in the political wilderness, Barak has been given another chance by his party. Unlike the other candidates, Barak was very careful during his Labor leadership bid not to commit the party to withdrawing from the governing coalition if he took office. He was keen to distance himself from his predecessor’s (former Labour party Chair Amir Peretz) poor record as defence minister, who was severely criticised in the first phase of the Winograd Commission report (this report is investigating Israel’s actions during the war with Hezbollah last year). Furthermore, he didn’t make any big policy commitments, specifically anything around the peace process. Despite rumours of electoral irregularity at the second round, which still prevail today, Barak won the position of party chair, and was duly brought into the governing coalition and appointed defence minister.
Since his appointment, the future looks brighter for the party under Barak’s leadership. Polls indicate that if Israel was to go to a general election tomorrow, with Olmert as the head of Kadima, Labor would fare well, picking up an extra 6 seats to add to their existing 19. However, this would not be enough to fend off the Likud party, chaired by the recently re-elected Benjamin Netanyahu, who would win 32 seats. Depending on Netanyahu’s ability to form a coalition, he could become the new Prime Minister.
It is widely accepted that the current ruling centrist party Kadima is unlikely to see future electoral success. Formed by Ariel Sharon when he was Prime Minister, its second leader Ehud Olmert never gained the same popularity from within the party or from the wider public, and he has been attacked for his role during last year’s war in Lebanon. It is currently in Labor’s interest to remain part of the coalition, as the combined strength of Kadima with Laobr will keep the Likud party at bay and buy Barak time to establish himself as a welcome defence minister after such an unpopular predecessor. In the first instance, Barak has to prove himself to the wider Israeli electorate as competent enough to ensure Israel’s future stability, reconciling the Labor party position of actively pursuing the two state solution with the country’s increasing security concerns. Once he has demonstrated his capability, he then has to assume the standing of a future Prime Minister, as the preferable alternative to Netanyahu.
In recent weeks Barak has faced a number of difficult challenges facing Israeli society, including confronting military personnel who object to carrying out orders on political/ideological grounds (e.g. religious-nationalist soldiers refusing to accept orders to evict settlers from settlements), addressing the high incidence of Israelis who defer their military service, and convincing Syria that Israel has no interest in pursuing offensive action against its neighbour by ignoring internal pleas to provide the Israeli population with gas masks. In all of these instances he has come across as principled, resolute and with conviction.
Barak also has the responsibility of proving himself internally within the party, in order to renew the membership’s support. Since his re-election he has been seen to actively change his behaviour, reaching out to the Labor party’s diverse membership of Israeli Arabs, Druze, Kibbuznik and trade unionists, carrying out a series of discussion meetings, listening to the wants and wishes of Labor’s closest supporters.
The final Winograd Commission report is not expected to be published until as late as next March, after which it is anticipated that a General Election will be called. If Barak continues on the path of proving both to the wider Israeli public and his membership that he is an adept leader and the party survives the report’s criticism, then Barak faces a fighting chance of becoming Israel’s prime minister once again.