It has been a depressing few months for human rights in Iran. 19 students and activists including Majid Tavakoli, Ahmad Ghasaban, and Ehsan Mansouri are still languishing in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison. There are reports of them being tortured and beaten – common practice in section 209 of the prison, where many seen as ‘security’ threats to the government are thrashed with cables and fists in order to extract confessions. Haleh Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, two scholars from US based think tanks have been in solitary confinement since 8 May, where it is believed they have been coerced into making televised confessions, which may be used against them in trial. 30 people have been executed in the past month, with opposition sources claiming that some were political activists, rather than criminals.
Iran leads the world in the execution of children and hands out the death penalty for ‘crimes’ such as breaking chastity, or being gay. The most common form of death sentence is hanging by crane, a punishment where the victim is slowly throttled, as the condemned’s neck is not broken. Despite a supposed moratorium on stoning, Jafar Kiani was stoned to death in July this year for the crime of adultery.
Hardliners have also overseen a crackdown on so called ‘immoral behaviour’ – read wearing make-up, wearing bright or tight fitting clothes. Many reformist newspapers have been closed, including the popular Shargh, despite widespread self-censorship in the media.
There are some signs of official concern over these recent trends. Ayatollah Shahroudi, the comparatively moderate head of the judiciary has criticised Ahmadinejad publicly, and ordered officials to investigate claims of torture in Evin prison. According to Robert Tait, he is also believed to be unhappy about the stoning of Kiani, after he had ordered a stay of execution. However, he is in a battle for control with Saeed Mortazavi, the hardline prosecutor in chief, who is keen to push on with more executions, and is seeking the ultimate penalty against 17 people described as hooligans.
Their fight is representative of the wider struggle that is going on in Iran in the run up to the parliamentary elections next year and the Presidential elections scheduled for 2009. Much of the initial shine has come off Ahmadinejad’s Presidency, with high inflation and mass unemployment causing economic stagnation. Ahmadinejad came into office on a ticket of sharing the proceeds of oil wealth amongst ordinary Iranians – a popular cause, but has presided over petrol rationing, which lead to widespread violence and protests across the country in June. The President was forced to sack his oil and industry cabinet ministers to deflect blame from him personally.
Reformist MPs tried to galvanise the groundswell of anger against Ahmadinejad by proposing to hold the Presidential and parliamentary elections at the same time – given the voters an early opportunity to have their say on the President, but the move failed.
A nationwide poll of public opinion, conducted by a US group, seemed to show that the government was out of tune with its citizens – 61% said they opposed the current system (tantamount to treason in Iran) with nearly 80% supporting democratic elections, even for the Supreme Leader. However, opinion is divided, with significant minorities supporting the current system and Ahmadinejad’s policies. The majority were clear though – they favour prioritising economic development and greater ties with the outside world, above developing nuclear weapons.
The challenge for reformists will be whether they can find a clear leadership figure and build a coalition of support along with pragmatists such as former President Rafsanjani. He is seen to be the front runner at the moment, but is still damaged by corruption allegations and from recent tactical errors such as claiming that the still revered Ayatollah Khomeini wanted to drop the state’s ‘Death to America’ chant.
Would internal change in Iran dramatically shift Iran’s foreign policy? It’s doubtful, in the short term. After all, a deal on the nuclear programme was not achieved under the reformist President Khatami. The international community gambled on achieving a deal post the 2005 election, and ended up with Ahmadinejad. Also, public opinion tends to support Iran’s policies on support for Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as a small majority (52%) being in favour of nuclear weapons.
Engagement may bring progress, even under the current government. UN sanctions have led to some opening up of nuclear facilities in Arak and Natanz, and it is hoped the US talks will bear fruit for Iraq’s security. While we should not shy away from exposing human rights abuses, when it comes to elections, the international community must not be perceived to be ‘meddling’ in Iran’s internal affairs.