Gordon Brown’s self-assured and principled start to his premiership have had many political commentators eating their words this summer.
A series of announcements before recess – such as the pledge to build three million new homes and the commitment to constitutional reform on a grand scale – immediately evaporated naysayer fears that Brown’s tenure would lead to a steady decline in Labour’s prospects. The Tories spent so much time lowering expectations about the new government that Brown’s drive and sense of purpose has surprised even Labour’s most hardened opponents. Changes in emphasis on difficult issues such as casinos policy, the reclassification of cannabis and 24-hour drinking, have lent a sense that a new moral purpose may guide policy making in the future.
Meanwhile the Tories are tying themselves in knots after realising that Brown and his new team present a more formidable foe than they prepared for. The meltdown started with Cameron’s humiliating internal tussle about grammar schools which showed abject weakness in the face of opposition from within his own party. Since then the Tories have been wrong-footed at every turn. While the prime minister was busy negotiating funding for flood-stricken areas, Cameron was in Rwanda. In any other month this would have represented Cameron at his best, but calls for a vote of no confidence over-shadowed his trip instead.
The prime minister’s adept handling of three major crises – failed terrorist attacks, the floods and foot and mouth – couldn’t have provided more of a contrast. And the launch of two of the Conservatives’ policy groups hasn’t given the Tories the boost they expected. In fact it looks like critics’ predictions are coming true: the policy groups may become a hindrance, rather than a liberation from the tough decisions needed on policy.
First we had the report of the social justice policy group which argued for a return to a marriage subsidy, in complete defiance of any evidence that such a tax benefit encourages couples to marry, or stay married. Why, if Conservatives care as much about child poverty as they say they do, would they want to redistribute more money to wealthy people in stable relationships?
John Redwood’s commission on economic competitiveness came second, with its call for tax cuts, withdrawal from the EU social chapter, and a relaxation of health and safety measures. David Coats provides a trenchant analysis in the opinion section of exactly how illogical Redwood’s proposals are, but Cameron has failed to rebuff them on his return, finally, from holiday. And Cameron’s attempt to wrestle back the policy agenda from Labour – an assault on supposed closures in district hospitals – fell into immediate disarray through the (public) schoolboy error of failing to check whether local services were indeed under threat.
It looks like the Cameronistas have been hoist by their own petard. In creating such a simplistic analysis of the reasons why new Labour won three successive elections – through good media management, rather than sound policy direction – the Tories have followed the pull of their own rhetoric by becoming exactly what they have always accused the government of: all spin and no substance. Labour faced up to its demons in the Clause IV debate and spent two years crafting policy answers to the problems facing Britain before 1997: that was what made the party fit for government, something the Tories should have taken more notice of. Cameron, on the other hand, has no real basis for his reforms and no guiding judgment to set a sustainable policy direction for the Conservative party.
With an election possibly less than a year away, it is hard to see how the Tories can make themselves electable. But as Julia Clark’s article cautions, Brown’s bounce in the polls may only be as a result of the honeymoon all new PMs experience, and that it will only consolidate if he continues to make strides in setting out a new direction for government. Labour still needs to regain the public’s trust on the NHS, education and crime and justice, which means we must guard against complacency.
The party also faces its first big test at this month’s party conference when delegates will have the opportunity to vote on proposals to reform the party. Gordon Brown has championed reforms to make the internal policy making process open to more members and to help local parties to reach out to new audiences. Members will also be given the opportunity for the first time to agree the party’s policy programme through an OMOV ballot every year.
Party activists cannot live any longer in a state of denial – watching membership decline, but clinging on to the comfortable old institutions of EC, GC, BLP, somehow hoping that the golden age of mass party membership will return. Jessica Studdert argues compellingly in this issue that the party must emulate the success of campaigning movements such as Make Poverty History and take our progressive values to people, rather than expecting them to find us. There won’t be a better time to embrace party reform – let’s hope conference makes the right choice.