Politics is just like football – a funny old game. One minute you’re flying high, getting the bounce of the ball. But it only takes a few bad calls and your momentum’s gone. And when your momentum’s gone, it’s not at all easy to get it back. Before you know it, your hardcore supporter base is placing critical posts on websites and the chairman’s ‘vote of confidence’ is one bad result away.
Just ask David Cameron.

A year ago, as we approached the Conference season, the question – is David Cameron capturing the political zeitgeist? – would have provoked a very different response than today.

I recall a lively Progress fringe in Manchester that touched on similar ground. Without doubt, there was a good deal of cynicism about Cameron the man. Many pointed out that he was getting an easy ride and was yet to be tested. They said, rightly, that there’s a world of difference between, on the one hand, successfully capturing headlines and, on the other, getting the big judgment calls right so they will stand the test of time and not backfire on you.

But, at that fringe meeting, it was accepted that Cameron had an ability to appear modern and in touch, if not with the whole of Britain but certainly an opinion-forming metropolitan elite. Significantly, unlike his three immediate predecessors as Tory leader, he also appeared to have an instinctive grasp of the root of his party’s problems.

What we didn’t know at the time, but do now, is that Cameron lacks the strength of character, judgment and principle to make real rather than superficial change.

As a PR man, David Cameron could see with absolute clarity that Theresa May’s brutal assessment of the Tory problem was in fact right – that they remained the ‘nasty party’ and a contaminated brand to many voters. His success in winning the leadership was partly due to the fact that he found a way of telling his party faithful this painful home truth with a tad more tact than Theresa. Since then, he has tried to reposition the Tories into appearing they care, particularly by using big themes of the time such as climate change and international development.

To back this up, Cameron has alluded to trends of the times. He had noticed a growing hunger among many consumers for more ethical products, in stark contrast to the mood of the 80s, and a growing wish to be an activist for a cause via new internet communities.

This has all been window dressing. Cameron’s broad analysis since taking up the leadership has been something that large parts of his right wing rank-and-file simply didn’t want to hear – that Labour has been on the right side on all the big questions of the last 20 years.

But this is where his problems started. It was the growing rumblings from within his own party in response to these pronouncements that have exposed other less impressive character traits.
The grammar schools example captures it all perfectly.

Cameron’s good PR instincts told him, correctly, that the mood of the times is very much about meritocracy and inclusiveness. So he agreed with David Willetts that the Tory party should shift its long-held position on grammar schools. But it was poor judgment to make this his self-proclaimed ‘Clause 4’ moment, particularly when he appeared not to have had a genuine change of heart himself. As an issue it touched a nerve deep in the Tory psyche and faced with immediate rumblings from his party, Cameron showed weakness by backtracking and delivering a policy fudge to placate his colleagues. He was able to make this change with ease because he never truly believed in the new policy but had pursued it out of pure expediency.

That’s Cameron all over. Thinking too much about the zeitgeist, the here and now and not enough about his long-term strategy, with an articulation of what he truly believes in.

One year on, we know a lot more about David Cameron as Conservative leader. When he has hit trouble, he has reverted to a core, right wing agenda and failed to back up his correct assessment of the Tories with strength of character and good judgment. He has done that because he appears increasingly fearful of his position within the Conservative party and the high-profile donors who have walked away.

So, at this year’s Conference, I will have a two-word answer to anyone who asks me whether David Cameron is capturing the political zeitgeist – John Redwood.