Australia’s prime minister, John Howard, boasts the record of being the longest-serving elected conservative leader in the world. However, an election due in late 2007 is likely to see his government’s rule come to an abrupt end, with pundits predicting his defeat at the hands of a resurgent Labor party under the leadership of Kevin Rudd.
Currently riding high in the polls, Rudd is an articulate young politician who was not even in parliament at the time of the government’s election, but has managed to transform his party’s prospects after almost 12 years in the wilderness. For nine months, polls have consistently shown growing support for the Labor party.
This is significant because Howard has dominated politics more than any politician of his generation. The key to his victory in 1996 was to split the electoral coalition on which the Labor party relied so heavily: appealing to socially-conservative, ‘aspirational’ working-class voters, typified by the constituencies of Western Sydney, with jingoistic and populist messages. Attacking the elitist ‘latte-set’, he led opposition to ‘politically correct’ ideas like multiculturalism, Aboriginal land rights and republicanism. His canny reading of the electorate, and ability to outmanoeuvre the Labor party, ensured victory for his conservative coalition at four successive elections.
So what can explain the recent shift away from the Howard government? Is this a genuine realignment of the Australian political consensus, or simply a sign of an electorate growing tired of a sputtering fourth-term government?
After almost 12 years, three significant factors have contributed to Howard’s waning popularity. The first is industrial relations. Howard used his 2004 victory to pursue radical reforms aimed at destroying trade unions, weakening safety nets and promoting individual bargaining between employers and employees. With unemployment at historic lows, voters have rightly recognised this as a case of ‘political over-reach’ and offensive to the traditional Australian notion of a ‘fair go’. Second, after successfully campaigning on a record of low interest rates in 2004, Mr Howard has been damaged by several consecutive increases by the Reserve Bank. With most households heavily indebted, there is growing concern over housing affordability.
Finally, as a long-time climate- change denier, Howard has been wrong-footed. Australia has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol along with the US, but is bearing the brunt of climate change. The worst drought in recorded history is crippling agriculture and leaving towns with dwindling water supplies.
But, what of the Labor party? Exploiting weaknesses in the government is one thing, but what must Labor do to shift the political battleground onto progressive territory?
The first task for Rudd is to weave the specific concerns of the electorate into a progressive narrative that establishes a clear vision for the country. One possible agenda is quality of life, covering issues such as housing affordability, environmental sustainability, family-work balance and childcare. The pitch to the electorate could mention protecting an Australian ‘way of life’.
Rudd’s second task is to rebuild the electoral coalition that Howard so effectively splintered twelve years ago. Debate about whether the Labor party should move to the left or right, after working-class or middle-class votes is largely fruitless. Labor needs both the suburban working-class and the inner-city professionals to govern, and should be focused on building a consensus that encompasses a diversity of interest groups.
And Rudd must be bold. The temptation for Labor is to take no risks and allow the government to succumb to its own ineptitude. But Howard is a wily operator and has clawed back from the brink before. The mistake of his opponents has always been to underestimate his tenacity. In order to succeed in its bid to reclaim power, a Rudd-led Labor party must be prepared to take calculated risks in policy development and set an ambitious agenda. If it can achieve this, the scene looks set for Australia to return to the social democratic fold.