Turkey is the country of the future, and the future will not be postponed. France and Germany wish to block Turkey’s ascension to the EU on the grounds of religion, “a Muslim country in a Christian club.” Their objections are not religious, but a power game. To understand this power game we have to understand the recent past.
In the 1980s, Europe’s decisions were made on the basis of the Franco-German consensus. France and Germany seemed to represent the common view of the EU countries, so if France and Germany agreed on something then usually the whole of Europe was in agreement. The exception to this consensus was the UK government, who, under Margaret Thatcher, seemed to stand at the fringes and scream in frustration.
The fall of the Berlin Wall changed much. Chancellor Kohl gained electoral success with the promise to rebuild East Germany. John Major’s government advocated EU membership for former Eastern Block countries and the usual Franco-German consensus was replaced by an Anglo-German consensus. The natural assumption was that Germany, the powerhouse of Europe, would lead the eastern countries into prosperity. It didn’t quite work out like that.
Once the eastern countries were well on their way to joining, it became clear that they did not want to be bossed about by Germany. In fact, they didn’t even like Germany. To the dismay of Germany and France, these new European countries have looked further west for their key relationships, to Britain.
And this is where Turkey comes in. Turkey is a country of 70m people, building an economy that is likely to dwarf the ‘economic miracles’ of Ireland and Portugal. So could a combination of British, Turkish and old Easter block votes create a new balance of power in the EU?
Perhaps this is why French and Germans cry go out, “They are different to us! It is a Muslim country in a Christian club! The size of the EU will become unwieldy!” M. Chirac even went so far as to promise a referendum on Turkey, knowing what the outcome would be.
However, this internal bickering was placed in perspective when a greater threat appeared on the EU’s borders north, when Russia turned off the gas to the Ukraine. Hardly a major crisis in itself, they quickly turned it on again. But a point was made. Europe had become dependant on Russian pipelines and Russian supplies of energy. And Russia wants a price higher than money for supply. Russia wants influence. Politics for gas. Obey or go buy elsewhere.
The problem is that there is no elsewhere. Unless the EU built a new pipeline directly through to Asia, where gas is abundant. There is only one catch to this idea, the country that the pipeline must go through, is not a member of the EU. It is Turkey.
France and Germany have moderated their tone in recent months. They no longer publicly insult Turkey. French President Sarkozy has rejected Chirac’s pledge of a referendum. If this is diplomatic language for a change of policy, only time will tell.
As Bush Administration is not the whole United States of America, conservatives/liberal governments in France and Germany do not represente those whole countries.
Progressists are in favour of a membership of Turkey. But, not at all cost and not at any conditions. For example, we consider that full State of Right, total separation between the army and the government, respect for minorities, acknowledgment of the recent Past, withdrawal of northern part of Cyprus are prerequisites before examining positively the legitime EU membership claim of Turkey.
Of course, religion matters consciously or not in the appreciation of the demand by the already members. One more time, most of the time, this issue is put on the table more by the conservative or christian-democrats forces than Progressives.
History weights a lot too. do we have to remember that most of the Balkans EU member-States (Greece, Bulgaria, Roumania) but also Hungary and Austria have a difficult relationship with Turkey due to occupation during centuries.
Our responsability, as Progressives, is to push this membership forward in a critical and responsable way. We are the promoters of mutual understanding when everything leads to nationalism and narrow-minded thinking.