With Hillary Clinton once again the front-runner in the contest to become Democratic candidate in November’s general election, the focus switches – for the first time for the Democrats – to the South.

Much has been written on both sides of the Atlantic about the importance of race in this election. Comments by Senator Clinton on the respective contributions to the civil rights movement of the visionary Martin Luther King and the politician-president LBJ were jumped upon by Obama’s supporters as racially insensitive. Some even claimed that her husband’s description of Obama’s campaign as ‘the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen’ was racist. Although a truce was declared by the candidates last Tuesday, the damage had already been done. The Washington Post reported a shift in support from Clinton to Obama among African-Americans. Certainly the exit polls from Saturday’s Nevada caucus made for interesting reading: 83 per cent of African-Americans voted Obama while Clinton cleaned up among whites.

But something funny is happening in the factories, fields and faculties of South Carolina where African-Americans make up half the primary’s electorate. Far from conforming to the identity politics of race, voters of all backgrounds are undecided on whether to opt for the first genuinely electable African-American with his message of hope or for the arguably more experienced candidate.

I spent the last week in the beautiful seaside town of Charleston canvassing registered Democrats for the Clinton campaign. Although many have made up their minds, many more are – with less than a week to go – undecided. The sense of history here is palpable; apathy appears dead. I have only spoken to one person who said flat out that they were not intending to vote.

This is not to say that identity is playing no role at all. As in New Hampshire and Nevada, women of all backgrounds are likely to favour Clinton while those under 35 will probably follow Obama. As a local boy, Edwards should fare better here than he did in the ‘silver state’ (where he scored just 4 per cent) especially among the significant unionised population.

And something else may be happening that favours Clinton. In Nevada, half the voters had made up their minds over a month before polling day. They favoured Clinton over Obama by a factor of nearly 2-1. Another 40 per cent made up their minds in the final days of the campaign and these mainly went to Obama. But a significant minority of voters (8 per cent) made up their minds on election day itself and voted for Hillary. In the public bear pit of a caucus with friends and family watching, switching sides can be a painful business (there were even rumours of a fist fight at one site). In the privacy of a polling booth, however, with only your conscience for company, more voters may think again. This phenomenon, after all, is what won the 1992 UK general election for John Major confounding the pollsters. The same thing may just be happening again.