The British National party launched its London election campaign in earnest last month in the belief that representation on the London assembly will be followed by European success and put the party beyond the reaches of its opponents.
A national weekend of action saw over 150 BNP members flood Barking and Dagenham in mid-January in the first of a number of national activities focused on the capital. In recent weeks we have seen increased BNP activity across London, with mass leafleting taking place in Redbridge, Sutton, Bexley and Merton.
The BNP believes it can win between one and three seats on the London assembly that, if achieved, could create a momentum to win several seats at the 2009 European elections. Success in those elections would solve the party’s financial problems but, more importantly, provide them with a respectability that would lift them out of the fringes of politics and into the mainstream.
BNP leader Nick Griffin believes the party could win up to three seats in London next year. While they have no chance in winning any of the 14 constituencies that use the First Past the Post system, Griffin believes that they will gain representation through the all-London top up system, of which there are 11 seats available and which are distributed to reflect the party’s overall share of the vote. To win one seat on the London assembly the BNP would need to get five per cent of the vote. For two seats they would need eight per cent and for three just 11 per cent.
In 2004 the BNP polled 4.8 per cent, missing a seat by just 5,000 votes. In the same elections the UK Independence party polled 8.2 per cent, gaining two seats on the London assembly. Given that the last London elections were held on the same day as the European elections and that Ukip have since imploded (now called One London), the BNP quite rightly expect the Ukip vote to collapse. It must also be remembered that since the last London elections the BNP has emerged as a significant force in outer east London, gaining 12 councillors in Barking and Dagenham and one each in Havering and Redbridge. There are an additional seven BNP councillors just over the London border in Epping Forest.
On paper it would appear fairly easy for the BNP to gain the additional 5,000 votes for one seat. After all, the party won almost 8,000 votes in Barking and Dagenham in the last general election, a 40 per cent increase on their 2004 London assembly vote.
Support for the BNP appears to be concentrated around the outskirts of London, particularly around outer east London and on the fringes of south and south-west London. In addition to Barking and Dagenham, the BNP polled 10 per cent in wards in Havering, Sutton, Croydon, Lewisham, Hillingdon and Enfield. This corresponds with where Ukip picked up most of its support. Both parties fared poorly in inner-city London, confirming the suggestion that Ukip collected a white right-wing vote.
The BNP’s belief that a sizeable chunk of the Ukip vote could switch to them has been highlighted in research published by the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust. In The Far Right in London: A Challenge for Local Democracy?, researchers found a common identity between BNP and Ukip voters and, to a less extent, Conservative party voters. This has been backed up by the London Elections Study, which showed that people who expressed a ‘liking’ for Ukip were also more likely to state a ‘liking’ for the BNP and vice versa. A further project in 2005 by Helen Margetts, Patrick Dunleavy and Jennifer van Heerde has identified the existence of a ‘right bloc’ in London politics, consisting of BNP, Ukip and the Conservatives. According to the State of the Nation survey, the cross over between these three parties appear stronger in London than elsewhere in the country.
The existence of a potential right-wing block vote of between eight and 12 per cent is what makes the BNP confident of electoral success in the capital. While most Ukip voters will probably move to the Conservatives in May, especially if there is a close contest for mayor, at least 20 per cent could move over to the BNP, giving the racist party 6.5 per cent even before the emergence of the BNP in the capital since 2005 is taken into account.
So is the BNP guaranteed success in London next May? Of course not. While the figures show what a difficult task we are facing, there are still three months to go and everything to play for. The very fact that London has such a diverse population automatically means that 35 per cent of voters should naturally be opposed to the BNP.
There are also a good many white voters who will be strongly against the fascists. The same research published by Rowntree found that the BNP was Britain’s most disliked political party with three-quarters of respondents saying that they would never, under any circumstances, vote for them.
Mobilising the anti-BNP vote is crucial but it is important not to take this vote for granted. Even among BME communities, natural anti-BNP voters, there is much work to be done. Many newer arrivals will not understand the BNP threat while many in longer established communities are feeling the economic consequences of the exploitation of cheap migrant labour.
The fundamental objective for anti-fascists is increasing turnout. Given the electoral system, the BNP will have to find one extra voter for every twenty new voters we turn out. An increased turnout could seriously derail the BNP’s chances, particularly of getting more than one person elected.
The wider political scene will impact on the BNP, both negatively and positively. The party will be assisted by the demise of Ukip. Its vote was boosted in 2004 because the election was held on the same day as the European election, which will not be the case this time, and it has undergone several splits and defections.
The BNP might be helped, however, by the candidature of Boris Johnson. While this is likely to reduce the BNP’s own mayoral vote, some of the anti-party voters Johnson might attract on the basis of giving Ken Livingstone the boot could vote BNP in the assembly elections.
Searchlight believes that a new strategy is needed to target the sections of the population that are likely to vote and mobilise those communities most likely to be opposed to the BNP. To do this we need to develop new campaigning techniques, including a much bigger internet campaign. Over the next few weeks Searchlight will be launching a number of initiatives and art-ready material that we hope other organisations will use and tailor to their own audiences. More specifically, we intend to initiate our largest internet and email campaign which will hopefully allow tens of thousands of Londoners to play their part in the campaign.
While winning the political argument is important, this election will be won on increasing the turnout. Our target turnout must be 45 per cent which would translate into the BNP requiring 120,000 votes for one seat and almost 200,000 votes for two. If we achieve this then Griffin’s rolling plans for the next few years could well be in tatters.