The Democratic party only wins election races that it thinks it is going to lose. Discuss. Maybe that is putting it too strongly, but there’s no doubt that this was the year when the Democrats had it all and then risked throwing it all away. This election should have been in the bag following a two terms of a Republican president who is polling historic new lows, even in his lame-duck sunset. America thinks it is on the wrong track. Time for a change. Except that it is now May and the Democrats have still not chosen their candidate. The luxury of choice has turned into an agony of indecision. Meanwhile, in John McCain, the Republicans have chosen a true individual with a powerful appeal to independents. I hate even to say it, but my money is on President McCain.

Barack Obama has gone from an insurgent candidate, a change candidate, to the one whose proxies claim a points victory and call in code (or not) for Hillary to stand down. She is accused of being a saboteur for staying in the race. It is true that even as a Hillary supporter I find myself thinking sometimes that she should step down and let Obama take his run at McCain. And then a few things stop me.

I think about the incredible thinness of Obama’s political CV. He makes George Bush’s record as candidate look weighty. I think too about his vagueness. And the fact that his policies, when spelt out, never give his party difficult choices, always sounding instead like leftish nostrums. I think that every time he is attacked in the short general campaign, each accusation will make people wonder whether they ever really knew him at all – being such a newcomer. I find myself thinking that this is not yet his time. Also, the persistent whiffs of sexism in the anti-Hillary rhetoric, even from Obama himself , repulse me.

Perhaps I am over-sensitised from 2000, but I sometimes get a whiff of Nader too, not from Obama, but from his supporters. How pampered a lefty would you have to be, following eight years of a right-wing Confederate ram-raid on the White House, with the world and its environment wobbling on its axis, not to wish for Bill Clinton back. Or Al Gore. Or Hillary. They may not be pure keepers of the pure socialist flame but their administrations are demonstrably better for the vulnerable in the US and the world. I worry that some on the left vote to express themselves, not judging the effects on others.

I think Hillary can win against McCain. I wish and hope that Obama does if he is the candidate. But I doubt it. The events of the past few months have weakened him as a general election candidate.

What Obama said about small town culture and what his pastor said about America will play and play with the general electorate. They may be faux pas in the Democratic party but they are gross mistakes with the wider electorate. The Republican party managed to smear the ultimate political boy scout, Al Gore, as some kind of serial liar. It painted a decorated and scarred war hero, John Kerry as a coward.

On the other hand, it has laid every sort of calumny at Hillary’s door, and yet she survives. Will Obama prove as enduring? Meanwhile the last few months have shown up Hillary’s weakness in running her campaign. Is that really a good proxy for how she would perform in the White House? Her great mistake was to start fighting the general election early. How I wish more Democrats had joined her in that error …

The Pennsylvania result is unlikely to prove conclusive. But it would be overly fond to hope that the continuing battle between Barack and Hillary will throttle McCain’s campaign of oxygen. McCain is gaining time to rig the battlefield ahead of the general election. The Democrats need to choose a candidate. The votes of the superdelegates are at least as valid in that choice as votes stacked up all but uncontested in the potato fields of Idaho, or the uncounted votes for Florida. But the time of choosing, one way or the other, is near. I hope it is Hillary. But even more than that I hope the Democrats all will unite around whoever wins.

William Higham is a member of Vauxhall CLP

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With three crucial Democratic primaries looming it is becoming increasingly obvious that Hilary Clinton is not headed toward the big wins she so desperately needs if she is to jump-start her presidential bid. In Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole and which votes tomorrow, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll only has her leading Barack Obama by 5 points. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party’s nomination.

If Hillary Clinton wants a dignified and graceful exit from the race to be the Democrat presidential nominee she should quit by the end of the week and then formally endorse Barack Obama.

Senator Obama has a commanding lead in pledged delegates and a lead of over 900,000 in the popular vote (excluding Michigan and Florida, where neither he nor Senator Clinton campaigned). Closing such a gap would require Clinton to win all the remaining contests by crushing margins – this just isn’t going to happen. The truth is she can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle — after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.

The latest news from across the pond is that the party’s top brass have concluded that Senator Clinton’s further participation in the race can only harm the party as Republican nominee John McCain strives to take advantage of her increasingly bitter battle with Senator Obama.

It appears that a number of options are actively being considered. One is for Jimmy Carter and Al Gore to go to Mrs Clinton privately and ask her to step down. The other is for both men to appear in public and endorse Obama – a move which would undoubtedly see a majority of ‘superdelegates’ go with them. So the choice that confronts the former first lady is to either stick it out to the end of the summer – and risk serious humiliation at the polls – or to pull out in the next few weeks with dignity and class, therefore giving herself a shot at redemption.

The reality (one that ‘team Clinton’ refuses to recognise) is that most Americans are already imagining what is likely to come next: a general election campaign between Barack Obama and the Republican nominee apparent, John McCain.

An Obama versus McCain contest would offer the American people a real choice. The two differ on everything from national security to abortion rights, from gun control to health care and taxes. John McCain would undoubtedly make for a formidable opponent, for example in a recent (February 2008) Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll voters believed that McCain has ‘the right experience’ over Obama by a 53-22 margin. Yet Obama has been underestimated before – few people imagined he could defeat Clinton in 10 straight primary contests or raise nearly $2m per day.

Obama versus McCain would be a dream general election matchup and would result in the most defining American presidential race for a generation.

Mike Ion is a Labour-supporting blogger, at mike-ion.blogspot.com