Metropolitan meltdown

Although the defeat in London was perhaps the most painful for Labour, Ken Livingstone did comparatively well compared to Labour candidates in most of the rest of the country. There was no good news for Labour anywhere in the 2008 local elections, with the possible exception of Slough.

Quite how bad the collapse in Labour’s standing is can be shown by a look at the results of the council elections in the 36 metropolitan boroughs, i.e. those councils in the main urban areas of England outside London (Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Tyne & Wear, South Yorkshire, West Midlands, West Yorkshire). For the analyst, these have the advantage of electing along an entirely regular calendar with the same wards coming up in three out of every four years. Council elections elsewhere can often have baffling local complexities, which lays traps for the unwary. In metropolitan England, there is normal party competition nearly everywhere, making it easier to measure how well the main parties are doing. They are also what remains of Labour’s power base in local government.

Some of the results of individual borough elections were disastrous, with the Conservatives pulling ahead in Wakefield and demolishing a large Labour majority in Wolverhampton, alongside more publicised gains in Bury.

But perhaps the most frightening way of looking at the 2008 local elections is by parliamentary constituency (see table). There were 124 parliamentary constituencies in the metropolitan boroughs in 2005, and of these 110 were Labour. The metro areas contain some marginal suburban and semi-marginal seats, but on the whole they are bedrock Labour territory, the solid core of Labour’s parliamentary party. Even in the disastrous election of 1983, Labour still had a solid lead in metropolitan England’s representation, with 82 seats to 43 for the Conservatives and four for the Liberal-SDP Alliance.

The recent sets of local elections in 2004, 2006 and 2007 saw Labour’s strength in the metro counties reduced, with only 64 constituencies sticking with Labour in 2006 and 2007, and both the Conservatives and Lib Dems making notional gains. 2008 was even worse, with Labour leading in only 49 of the constituencies (on new boundaries), just ahead of the Conservatives on 46. The Lib Dems were ahead in 20, Independents in one and – for the first time in a set of local elections – the BNP narrowly had the most votes in one seat (Morley and Outwood, where Ed Balls will stand next time).

The scale of the disaster is apparent from listing some of the constituencies that went Conservative this year, including Heywood & Middleton, Stalybridge & Hyde, Worsley & Eccles South, Sunderland Central, Dudley North, Wolverhampton North East, and – unbelievably – Rother Valley.

In 2006 and 2007, Labour’s main problem seemed to be the re-emergence of a north-south divide, with the Conservatives making huge progress in the southern marginal seats on which most of Labour’s parliamentary majority depends. The 2008 results were awful in some of these as well – in neither Harlow nor Portsmouth North did Labour elect a single councillor – but the rot has spread. The Conservative vote in the metropolitan counties had remained flat for years at around 27 per cent in local elections, but in 2008 it went up to 31 per cent, only just behind Labour. The working-class towns forming a ring round Manchester have been heavy going for the Tories at least since the 1990s (and often for decades before that – their support started to erode here in 1959). But in 2008 the Conservative vote showed distinct signs of life here.

A Labour optimist might say that the sharp fall in Labour’s support in the heartlands is a temporary reaction to political events such as the controversy over the 10p tax band and wider perceptions of economic difficulty, and that these will be reversed. Perhaps so – and Labour’s core areas returned to the party after horrible local election results in years such as 1968-69, 1977, 2000 and 2004. But one should not rule out 2008 being different – that old Labour loyalties are eroding rapidly, and once the hold on these heartlands is broken it will not be fully restored. Labour is in desperate electoral trouble, and with a slowing economy the party needs a whole new political approach if it is to patch up its relationship with its core areas – to say nothing of the marginals.