Some 15 months ago I wrote a book called Over To You, Mr Brown. It was a risky title to choose, because at that point who would become the next Labour leader was still unresolved.
Brown has been prime minister for almost a year and I have a strong sense of deja vu. Over to You, Mr Brown as a title again looks distinctly iffy, since so many are calling for him to stand down. David Miliband and others once more wait in the wings.
I argued in the book there was a decent to good chance that Labour could win a fourth term, given effective leadership and a clear break with some of the more problematic aspects of the Blair years. I’m not going to enter the lists about whether or not Mr Brown should step aside. I do have to confess to feeling not only disappointed at, but angry about, the string of poor decisions that have put Labour in such a weak position today. I don’t buy the argument that the government is not responsible for its current situation – that it’s mostly the fault of the big, bad global economy. Voters might have trusted Labour to see the country through a difficult period had not the government (not only Mr Brown) so thoroughly undermined itself.
As we all know, the public initially were receptive. In September last year it was David Cameron who was groggy and on the ropes – there was widespread anticipation that he might be ousted. All the talk of a possible election handed him a lifeline, and he hasn’t looked back since. Cameron has become an accomplished parliamentary performer, but the Tories do not have a compelling policy framework – most people in surveys say they regard him as a somewhat insubstantial figure. The Tories are ahead primarily on the basis of widespread hostility to Labour. As I write this, the latest poll shows the extent of the debacle: the Conservatives are on 47 per cent, Labour 23 per cent and the Lib Dems 18 per cent.
And there are plenty of further black clouds hanging overhead. According to financier George Soros, who is normally prescient about these things, a recession in the UK this year is inevitable; the only question is how deep it will be. The British housing market has a higher debt to purchasing power ratio even than the US, where a major market correction is well underway. A combination of falling house prices and rising food and energy bills threatens the possibility of a return to stagflation. Consumer confidence is at its lowest point for almost 20 years. There could also be a rash of public sector strikes. After all, the government refused the police their pay award while at the same time conjuring up over £2bn to reduce the impact of the removal of the 10p tax band.
So perhaps it is all over for New Labour – all that matters now is preparing in an effective way for opposition and avoiding a wipeout at the next general election? Peter Wilby, the former editor of the New Statesman, has recently argued as much, as have others. I don’t agree. The Tories are now favourites to gain an overall majority, but they aren’t yet in clear water. In any case, the best way to mute the effects of losing is to try one’s very best to win. How?
Everyone’s got their favourite recipes. Mine would be as follows. First, don’t accept the false opposition between shoring up the core vote and appealing to the middle classes. Labour can only have a chance of holding on to power as a one-nation party. Second, decide now where to back off and where to draw some lines in the sand. Hopefully, connect the two: for instance, it might be wise to pull back from increases in fuel duty, but such a move should go along with a firm restatement of a commitment to green taxation, with new policies in mind.
Third, wherever the lines in the sand are drawn, don’t have second thoughts – lead from the front (although I don’t think 42 days was exactly a good place to start). Fourth, turn the spotlight on the Tories and demand they come clean on what their policies actually are. As serious contenders for government, they should be subjected to much closer scrutiny than seems to be the case at the moment. Fifth, when a break comes along – for instance, if Boris Johnson makes a hash of running London – exploit it to the full. Sixth, should Obama win the US presidency, hug him close. Finally, and above all, don’t think that hanging in there until the economy improves will do the trick. Labour needs a renewed sense of purpose, but also somewhere, somehow, a touch of inspiration too.
Why is Labour now faring so badly?
In large part because of the series of self-inflicted wounds listed in column one. These failings are a great shame, since they have overshadowed the cluster of initiatives and accomplishments that have marked the past year (although some originated before Brown took up office). These are listed in the second column.
Column one
•A weak speech by Gordon Brown as new PM at the annual Labour conference – lacking in vision and incisiveness, and including crude populist soundbites, eg the now notorious ‘British jobs for British workers’.
•Talk of a ‘government of all the talents’, but in reality the government was initially dominated by a small inner circle.
• (The über-mistakes) Election dithering, compounded by denial that losing support at the polls had nothing to do with why no election was called. Cf David Cameron: ‘You are the first prime minister in history to call off an election because you thought you were going to win it.’
• Signing the Lisbon treaty in miserable isolation; ill thought-through policies on EU more generally.
• Being tough on terrorism by going for 42 days possible detention without charge on flimsy grounds.
• Waiting too long to take firm action about Northern Rock.
•Amazingly, no clear view at the beginning about how far to pursue Blairite reforms of public services.
• Copying Tory policy at short notice on inheritance tax and taxing of non-doms.
• Dressing up fuel duty increases as green taxes; refusal to hypothecate such taxes; highly problematic commitment to airport expansion.
• Backing down on 10p tax rate issue; if it was the right policy a year ago, it is the right policy now.
• Not setting a clear deadline for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq.
Column two
• The climate change and energy bills are close to passing through parliament.
•The same is true of Britain’s assent to the Lisbon treaty.
•Significant constitutional reforms have been signalled, even if less radical than seemed likely at the outset.
•The Children’s Plan shows determination to take a holistic view of child development.
•The skills agenda, as developed in the Leitch report, is being taken seriously, with important policy changes made.
•There has been a reaffirmation of determination to reduce child poverty, although there is no real chance of meeting the 2010 target to reduce by half.
•A single Equalities and Human Rights Commission has been created, coupled to a new equality bill promised for 2009.
•The Darzi Report should point the way forward on NHS reforms.
•The right to flexible working is to
be extended to some groups not so far covered.
•The pensions bill is a sensible package, requiring employers to make a contribution to workers’ pensions.
•Large numbers of new affordable homes to be built.
•A concordat has been introduced with the Local Government Association, including innovations such as participatory budgeting.
•A clear move towards a multilateral foreign policy has been made.