Across the developed world, in Germany, France, Spain, Britain and now the United States, the politics of conservatism is in seemingly inexorable decline. Political correspondents in have so far largely failed to spot this emerging trend, but the evidence seems to be clear cut: conservatism is dying.

In France, Nicolas Sarkozy cannot unpick the French social compact for fear of bringing the fourth republic to a standstill. In Germany, Angela Merkel cannot govern without the consent of the Social Democrats and other parties of the left. In Spain, Jose Zapatero’s vision has seen his left-of-centre coalition elected and then returned with an increase in parliamentary seats. In the United States, Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain is working hard to tack to the centre and abandon the political right in his bid for the White House whilst Barak Obama’s social democratic language – particularly with regard to social health care – is popularly received and in Britain, the Conservatives – in a bid to cleanse their brand – have started to use a peculiarly vague language of social responsibility.

However this collective decline masks two trends. Firstly, that the effects of globalisation are eroding the value and legitimacy of conservatism as a coherent political offering in developed economies; and secondly, that in response to this some conservatives are seeking to hide their conservative credentials under the cloak of ‘compassionate conservatism’.

Globalisation can be used for both conservative and progressive ends in the developing world. But the incredible speed of the economic and social development of some of the world’s developing countries such as China and India is placing a huge strain on the abilities of developing world to both compete and thrive. The daunting social consequences of this in the developed world have been clear for a while, although the economic effects are only just starting to be felt.

This situation compels the populations of those who feel most under threat to seek political movements which they believe can best protect them from the worst ravages of economic uncertainty while still guaranteeing their nation’s international competitiveness. Social democratic political parties should be best placed to capitalise politically upon these trends: the conservative alternative offers neither remedy nor amelioration.

Mindful of this, some conservatives – the self-styled ‘compassionate conservatives’ – will seek to use a political lexicon hitherto alien to them, in an attempt to convince the publics of certain developed nations that they have abandoned their lifetime conservative beliefs almost overnight and become social democrat-lite.

Few are better able to comment on the Trojan horse nature of compassionate conservative politics than Michael Gerson, former speechwriter to George W. Bush, one of the president’s closest former advisors and the man who actually coined the phrase ‘compassionate conservative’.

Compassionate conservatism seeks to reduce the scope and role of government and the state in society as an end within itself, irrespective of the social or economic consequences of doing this. It seeks to replace publicly funded services with ‘alternatives’ run by charities, it seeks to cast state safety nets such as universal health care, education, social services and much else as ‘government interference’ rather than the hallmarks of an enlightened society. At its heart, compassionate conservatism is purely ideological; it is the clandestine means by which conservatives seek public legitimacy to undermine long standing social compacts such as the British welfare state.

All of this was brought into sharp focus in the recent House of Commons debate over the role of the voluntary sector; exposing real differences between Labour’s progressives and the Conservatives. What masqueraded as a debate about the role of the voluntary sector in society, quickly and clearly became a proxy debate about the role and scope of the state in providing essential public services in the 21st century.

At best, compassionate conservatism provides the right with respite, but ultimately provides no long term recovery. In times of uncertainty, the public looks to government and its institutions to provide stability, strength, reassurance and leadership.

This is illustrated by a recent ICM poll for the Guardian regarding UK environmental policy; the poll served to reveal what progressives have known for a long time. When faced with taking responsibility in leading the fight against climate change, the overwhelming majority of people said that they wanted government to take strong and decisive action. The same is true of other economic and social problems. The public understands that individual actions, though important, are unlikely to be sufficiently significant to achieve profound social improvements. On the major social, economic and environmental issues of the day, the public requires that governments around the world do more, not less. The public wants the state to act decisively on matters such as these, not to abdicate its responsibilities.

Harnessing the public’s appetite for social democratic solutions requires progressives to understand more than ever before where the state should and should not have a role. This calls for the creation of the ‘intelligent state’ – with subsidiarity at its core – whereby progressives can harness collective action and meet universal needs, whilst also recognising the essential importance of individual choice.

By contrast, conservatism is dying. Compassionate conservatism is its principal symptom and only social democracy can provide the solutions for the looming challenges of the 21st century.