When Labour took office in 1997, Britain was suffering from what Tony Blair later described as a ‘progressive deficit.’ After more than a decade in power it is clear that our party desperately needs to renew and rebuild if it is to avoid its own ‘progressive deficit’ which could well culminate in humiliating defeat at the next general election.

The honest and, at times, uncomfortable truth is that we have not been making it easy for the electorate to vote Labour with any enthusiasm. On the doorstep the divide between the concerns of core Labour voters and those of our often PR fixated cabinet have never seemed wider. In fairness though, the history of Labour governments was ever thus. Since the 1920s the story goes something like this: Labour supporters are near euphoric when victory is achieved. There is then a period of hard slog as the party faces up to the harsh responsibilities of being in government. The party then accuses the leadership of betrayal and the leadership accuses the party of ingratitude. Supporters then become disillusioned which leads to defeat at the polls. We then experience a long period of Tory Government before the next outbreak of euphoria and so on and so forth.

The truth then is that historically Labour has been far better at defeating itself than the Tories have ever been – the recent 10p tax fiasco is clear evidence of this. After an unprecedented eleven years in power many of our own members want the party to be both passionately principled and sensibly pragmatic; to be a party that proudly honours its past whilst not neglecting to shape both its and our nation’s future; to champion the state whilst being part of the market; to tackle poverty but also support aspiration.

Just over twelve months ago Gordon Brown stood for the leadership of our party on a platform that argued that the renewal that was undertaken in order to gain power needed to be repeated if we are to keep power. The fact is, and it is an uncomfortable one for many, that by successfully occupying the centre ground, by modernising and reaching out beyond its own activists, New Labour ended up turning the Tories into a replica of what it used to be itself – a party with a narrow base, a party obsessed about the wrong things and a party seen as old fashioned and out of touch. David Cameron has shown that he understands all of this and that it is why he has been busy re-branding and re-positioning today’s Tory party, successfully if the polls are to be believed. The Conservatives have finally woken up to the reality that in order to be taken seriously they need to be seen as the future, the bearers of hope and the deliverers of change.

The problem with all of this is that it takes Cameron and his party into uncharted waters, which in turn presents Labour with a real opportunity. The history of the Tory party is centred on the core belief that government and politics can’t actually change people’s lives all that much. Tory philosophy has long rejected any talk about the strength and virtue of common endeavour or about the need to ensure that wealth and opportunity are placed in the hands of the many not the few.

Labour’s meltdown at the local elections and defeats in recent by-elections have prompted a good deal of soul searching (and recriminations) over the past few months. The debates over the summer indicate that, metaphorically speaking, there will be two Labour trains departing from Manchester at the end of this year’s conference. One will be taking the difficult, but ultimately rewarding, track that leads to renewal whilst the other will be seeking to reverse its way from the platform along the track that is signposted ‘political wilderness.’

This is why the real challenge in continuing the pursuit of a progressive political agenda comes not from a resurgent Tory party but from the defeatists, pessimists and cynics that exist within our own party. If Labour is to secure an unprecedented fourth term then it must urgently set about renewing itself, its message and its organisation. This renewal must reflect the aspirations of ordinary people whilst also being realistic about the challenges that lie ahead. A party that talks about ambition, hope and aspiration is far more appealing than one that constantly recites its achievements of the past ten years. Telling the electorate that things are much better than they were in 1997 is the political equivalent of living in the past.

If a fourth term is to be achieved Labour must continue with its progressive reform package and stop fretting about the opinion polls and how often Gordon Brown smiles. But above all else it must not, as it has so often done in the past, end up defeating itself.