The 2008 American election is often described as historic. The first African-American candidate faces the man who would be the oldest newly elected president. Sarah Palin is the first woman on a Republican ticket. It is also the first time since 1928 that neither president nor vice-president has sought office. But despite all these premieres, this election could end up looking like the two most recent where mobilization of core supporters was critical and the contest came down to a single state.
The president of the United States is not elected directly. Instead, candidates must gather 270 Electoral College votes with each state carrying its own number in rough proportion to its size. As in the UK, the first one past the post is the winner.
The 2008 election will rest on the outcome of roughly 10 states representing around one quarter of the population. On the upside for Barack Obama, a landslide could deliver a further six states. John McCain has his eye on another four. The remaining 30 states matter not a jot. To lose any of the strongholds in the northeast, California, his home state of Hawaii, or Illinois – the state he represents – Obama would need to face a meltdown on a scale similar to George McGovern in 1972 or Walter Mondale in 1984 who won just a state each plus Washington DC. With a couple of extraordinary exceptions that we’ll return to, John McCain’s prospects of losing any of the 18 states in the American heartlands would require a result akin to Barry Goldwater’s landslide defeat to LBJ in 1964 when he only won six states.
George Bush won with 286 Electoral College votes last time around so Obama needs at least 16 more to guarantee victory. So what’s in play? One almost dead cert is that Obama will take back Iowa (seven Electoral College votes). Al Gore won here in 2000 but John Kerry lost last time by 10,000. This is where Obama confounded the political establishment in early January with the first evidence of his extraordinary grassroots organization and fundraising prowess. It is also where McCain came fourth in the primary this year and fifth in 2000. If Obama cannot win Iowa it will be unlikely that he has done enough to become president.
One of the most important demographics in the general election will be blue-collar workers. There are four states where their votes are critical: Minnesota (10), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), and Ohio (20). The Democrats have held the first three since 1988. Any switch would signal a McCain victory and so his choice of running mate was critical. Instead of choosing an individual associated with a single state (Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mitt Romney who grew up in Michigan, or Tom Ridge who was governor of Pennsylvania), he opted for Sarah Palin who appeals to the 20-25 per cent evangelical population in each of these states.
Professor Robert Shapiro of Columbia University says: ‘all the signs are that it’s a repeat of 2004.’ By his assessment Ohio, which has gone the way of the country in every election since 1960, will be the key once again. Kerry staffers thought they had won there in 2004 only to find that the GOP had pulled off one of the finest ‘get-out-the-vote’ operations in electoral history and won the state by 2.1 per cent. To repeat that effort one Republican insider told me, ‘you can understand why McCain made his [vice-presidential] pick.’ Palin is both a member of the National Rifle Association and a social conservative. Obama famously talked of how ‘bitter’ this group was and Hillary Clinton beat him by four-to-one in some rural counties. Nonetheless, Obama is polling better than Kerry was at this stage among whites who earn under $50,000.
With or without Ohio, there are other routes to the White House for Obama. The photo finish in 2000 was Florida (27) but Kerry lost there by five per cent. The fundamentals do not look good for Obama who goes down badly with the country’s largest population of over-65s, an over-represented group of military serviceman, and Cuban-Americans who oppose his proposal to negotiate directly with the Castro brothers. But David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, said recently that he was ‘very bolshy’ about the state because of the 500,000 African-Americans and 900,000 young people who were registered but did not turn out last time.
Turnout is one of two goals for Obama. The other is registering eligible voters. This will be critical in the southwest states of Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), and Nevada (5). The trend since 1988 has been towards the Democrats. This is due to rapid growth in the population of Hispanics and white college graduates – both predominantly Democratic voters – in Denver, Las Vegas and Albuquerque. These cities make up the bulk of their states. Bush won New Mexico by 6,000 votes in 2004, equivalent to just three per cent of the state’s unregistered Hispanic voters. According to Plouffe, there are 100,000 unregistered Hispanics and 30,000 unregistered African-Americans in Colorado: more than the total margin of Bush’s victory in 2004.
Another potential route to the White House for Obama is to win Virginia (13) plus any other state mentioned above. According to Shapiro, Virginia is in the middle of ‘a transition over time’ from a southern to a northern state with an increasing number of college-educated families in high-tech jobs. There are also thousands of unregistered African-American and young voters. So despite George W Bush winning the state by 8.2 per cent, the Democrats have won the last two gubernatorial contests and the most recent Senate race. To capitalize on this, the Obama campaign have opened 41 offices throughout Virginia. Scores of volunteers are drifting in from DC each weekend to help out with the registration effort.
In addition to these states, Obama’s team are targeting six others where victory for Gore or Kerry was inconceivable and if Bill Clinton won it was only because his opponent was squeezed by libertarian Ross Perot. Buoyed by large wins in the primaries, the Obama team believe they’re ahead in Montana and North Dakota. Another libertarian, Bob Barr, is likely to do well in Georgia so that Obama will only require 47 per cent to win. The chance of victory in North Carolina may be heightened by a competitive Senate race while supporters are pouring over the border from his home state to help out in Indiana and Missouri.
In addition to holding on to Ohio and defending himself in the Democrats’ target states, McCain will be on the attack in four states other than those mentioned above. His best prospects lie in New Hampshire where he is popular and Obama missed out to Hillary Clinton. Washington and Oregon have gone blue every election since Reagan’s 1984 landslide but are always considered swing states. Finally, there is an outside chance of victory in Wisconsin, which Kerry won by just 11,000 votes.
The fundamentals for the Democrats are positive. Rising numbers of Hispanic, college-educated and young voters in key states are tipping the balance their way. If Obama’s registration and turnout strategy works, he will win nationally. But if McCain and Palin can mobilize their core vote while dampening enthusiasm for Obama in the mid-west, they instead will triumph.