It is now clear that Gordon Brown’s ‘post-bailout bounce’ has come to an end. Ipsos Mori’s February 2009 Political Monitor has the Conservatives on 48 per cent and Labour 28 per cent – a 20 point lead for the Tories, an increase from January’s 14-point lead.

The public’s declining support for Labour should not take us by surprise, given their low ratings only six months ago in September 2008, when Labour was on 24 per cent and the Tories on 52 per cent. The first bailout in October helped to temporarily boost Brown’s ratings, and the public rallied behind him briefly (as they do behind their leaders in times of crisis). However, growing concern about the economy and unemployment, in combination with Brown’s second bank bailout and the waning of Labour’s ‘country in crisis’ support swell, has resulted in Labour losing the ground they gained when the crisis first struck last autumn. In line with this, the prime minister’s personal ratings – which also saw a resurgence following the first bailout – are now falling again.

When considering the public’s view of the government in the context of the current economic situation, it is important to keep in mind that many of their reasons for dissatisfaction with Labour and Brown existed before the current economic crisis arose.

After an initial bounce on taking office in June 2007, Brown’s personal ratings declined rapidly for a range of reasons, including his failure to call an election that autumn and the donations scandal that followed soon after. The situation was exacerbated last April by the 10p tax controversy. It is clear that Brown’s ratings were in decline long before the current economic crisis struck – although the crisis itself did offer him the aforementioned ‘bailout bounce’.

However, this bounce didn’t stick, and what is very clear now is that the economy remains, and likely will remain, firmly at the top of the public’s agenda. Seven in 10 (70 per cent) now spontaneously mention it as one of the most important issues facing Britain, Mori’s highest ever rating on this issue for the fourth consecutive month in a row. Also, for the first time in a decade concern about unemployment is increasing notably, with a quarter (24 per cent) mentioning the issue, an increase of nine points since December 2008. Furthermore, around half (49 per cent) of full-time workers say they are worried about the possibility of being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next 12 months.

The prevalence of these economic concerns, and their potential to affect voters’ lives, means that the next election will be decided by how both parties seek to address the issue. The Conservatives, in addition to announcing policies of their own, are seeking to place blame for the crisis at Brown’s feet. At the early stages of the economic downturn, Brown and Alistair Darling were fairly successful in keeping the ‘locus of blame’ outside of the UK and positioning it at the feet of the US (and sub-prime lending). As the crisis continues, however, and people are continually reminded by David Cameron that Brown has overseen the British economy for the past 12 years, it is likely that more people will begin to blame Brown and the Labour party.

In this situation, the content of the Conservatives’ proposed policies and solutions may be less important than the fact that they are in opposition to Labour’s. To a certain degree, the parties are engaging in a high-stakes ‘bet’ about the future of the economy by positioning themselves apart on economic issues: if things begin to recover before the next election, Brown can take credit for steering the country through a difficult time; but if things remain the same or worsen, Cameron can claim that his ideas would have worked better. As long as there is little overlap between their policies (proposed or enacted), one of the parties can claim a decisive ‘win’ on the issue.

Both parties’ futures are now tied firmly to the course that the economy (domestically and internationally) follows over the next year and to which party’s actions and ideas gain the confidence of British voters.