‘In every single meeting,’ says a Downing street man, ‘there is a moment when someone around the table puts their head in their hands.’ We knew things were bad, but so bad you’d turn to the solace of upturned palms? Yes. Or rather the twin solaces of upturned palms and leadership talk. That’s right – they’re at it again. In the guidebooks to political despair, nothing recommended is quite as economical as leadership talk – the idea of simply getting rid of one man.
First, is it that bad? In PMQs, the PM certainly thought so, making like a shrink and calling it a depression (when the word ‘recession’ had been holding up OK). As if this wasn’t enough, his protégé raises him one, saying the economy right now is in the worst economic downturn in 100 years …a quick consultation of the history books shows the schools secretary thinks our current gloom is on a par with the gloom of the late 19th century when a bout of horse flu saw people unable to trade. We have not, we have Balls to thank for reminding us, lost our ability to get to work using the car. Yet.
But this kind of Recession Idol – ministers outbidding each other to come up with the most gloomy prophesy – speaks of a lack of focus. And, crucially, panic.
Deputy leader of the house Harriet Harman has reacted to every twist and turn in the complicated recession to erect a metaphorical stage and tie up metaphorical bunting and announce herself a candidate to lead Labour after Brown. Her participation in Recession Idol hasn’t yet seen her make a comment along the lines of ‘The Worst Recession Yet Since…’, but it can only be a matter of time.
But Downing Street do not want Recession Idol. They want the shy cabinet minister to stop being so timid – they want to locate the non-economy success story. One national newspaper ran a particularly bitchy briefing that Alan Johnson had been decreed absent from media coverage without leave. His crime? That health was no longer in the news. First the health secretary told Yvette Cooper that, no, she couldn’t have some of the 2008 NHS surplus back; to compound the problem he has taken the relative lack of news in heath as an opportunity not to launch a leadership bid and not to build his profile. He had, they felt, disappeared.
Once Downing Street’s displeasure had been made clear, he was on the television soft sofas that Sunday launching a (not particularly urgent) government strategy on dementia. Private polling has shown that the government does better when health and education stories are in the news.
Expect Recession Idol pulled from the airwaves. And a lot more of Alan Johnson.
Chancellor Cable?
There is a theory that Vince Cable’s attacks on Gordon have become slightly quieter. One explanation for this doing the rounds is that Cable was silenced by his less popular leader and given the directive that once he’d made his point about the recession, he should get back in his box.
But we can discount that argument since who should Clegg leave in charge when he goes on paternity leave but Electric Cable.
No, something else may be going on. It seems the whole good ship Liberal has changed its course with Nick Clegg at prime minister’s questions redirecting his fire by about 90 degrees right – ok, ok, they are meant to be the prime minister’s questions not the opposition leader’s questions. But, study Clegg’s questions. They are a smidgeon less vituperative.
The reason being the Lib Dems don’t want to trash Brown, they want to prop him up just enough to one day form a government with him. There’s precious little chance of being able to establish it since a Lib Dem campaigning for a hung parliament is like turkeys voting for Christmas (or rather veggie burgers voting for Super Bowl) but the signs are there that Liberal Democrats are going back to their constituencies and preparing for coalition.
Brown certainly has an eye to this possibility – allowing the Tories access to the civil servants in preparation for a Conservative government, but allowing the Lib Dems in to see the mandarins too.
One day a political columnist is seen having lunch with Clegg only a few days before a column appears in which the possible deal is laid out. Within this pact, Sir Ming Campbell is lined up to become the next speaker in the House of Commons – in a departure from etiquette since the role is thought to be due to go to a Tory such as Sir George Young. Veterans such as Sir Alan Beith might also get plum jobs. The talk is also of Cable becoming chancellor.
Watch out for more signs that the usually coruscating intellect of Vince
Cable is tamed. For the prospect of proportional representation, the price
would be cheap.