There are very different views on how big the threat the BNP will be on June 4’s European election. From dire warnings that they may get a handful of MEPs and begin their entry into the mainstream of UK and European politics, to the view that they may get one MEP – most likely in the North West where their leader Nick Griffin will stand, and for this reason we should guard against ‘talking them up’.
It is genuinely difficult to pitch exactly where the truth lies. The fact is, that under the proportional regional system used in the European elections, the BNP only need around 8 per cent to gain an MEP in most regions.
Why the threat now and what should progressives do about it? As my MEP colleague Glyn Ford, a veteran campaigner against the far right observed recently, the European elections are contextual. Voters treat them as less important and increasingly different from general elections where the government is chosen. ‘Less important’ means low turnout and ‘different’ means a chance to send a message to the established parties. This and a rise in Euro scepticism gave UKIP 16 per cent and 12 MEPs at the last Euro elections.
Despite unprecedented efforts by the government to tackle the global economic crisis, and with a Budget taking place before the Euro elections, low turnouts mean that those who would reward these efforts, may stay at home – those who want to lash out may cast a ‘pain free’ vote around the issues they are angry about – their own economic situation, immigration and perceptions of crime and political sleaze – tabloid denigration against all politicians is likely to continue.
For Labour, this is the third European election in a row in the mid term of a government period of office. Added to this, the 2009 election will be a ‘stand alone’ election in London, Scotland and Wales, further reducing turnout. The last election in London took place at the same time as the Mayoral elections, boosting the turnout of the main parties.
So what can progressives do to stop a far-right surge? Some damage is hard to reverse at this stage. We need to do everything we can to boost turnout particularly in our campaign from the main parties. – Labour MEPs are campaigning hard, with committed Labour activists. Without a louder national conversation MEPs campaigning from the main parties can only create a certain level of interest. More political actors, civil society and the media need to assess what the EU is actually delivering for British people.
That many voters do not see the point in voting in the European elections, speaks to a low turn out trend affecting all elections – especially secondary elections. There is also a break down in how the positive benefits of EU membership are communicated, and a continuing media anti-EU surge, renewed over the Lisbon Treaty debate. Conversely, a euro sceptic anti-establishment mood motivates anti-EU voting for UKIP and other anti-EU parties now including a more grass roots active BNP. Recently in Progress, Margaret Hodge, the MP for Barking, a constituency in which the BNP are active spoke about re-engaging Labour voters at community level. Jon Cruddas MP for the neighbouring Dagenham constituency has also written, spoken and campaigned on the way to tackle the BNP at grass roots community level. These lessons should be learned.
Trade unions and the Hope Not Hate campaign working with Labour party members have been active in getting across the message that the BNP are now working hard under the radar – in parts of outer and East London, the former mining villages of the East Midlands, West Midlands industrial areas, Yorkshire and the Humber, and across the North West and South East.
We must get across the threat, that the BNP includes members with criminal convictions for violence and racial attacks, and that gaining MEPs will allow them to join a far-right political group in the EU, boosting their financial and political base.
The BNP would be joining, in the European parliament, an increasingly assertive far-right who are busy moving into the mainstream – Forza Nuova in Italy, Le Pen and the Vlaams Bloc would regard first-time British neo-Nazis in the heart of Europe as a huge boost to their aspirations.
The argument that we may be ‘talking up’ the threat, is, in my view, not now an issue. In the few weeks left we should be motivating Labour supporters to actually turn out. I will be delighted to see a fascist free set of UK MEPs elected on June 4. I fear this will not happen – let’s send that warning to our supporters and progressives now.
Claude Moraes is Labour MEP for London