Next month’s elections to the European parliament raise two big questions: how badly will Labour perform; and will the BNP make a breakthrough by winning seats?
Last time, 2004, Labour did very badly. It won just 23 per cent of the vote – it’s worst in any Britain-wide election since 1918 – and only 19 of the 75 seats elected on the British mainland. This time things look bleak: Labour stands around seven points lower in the polls than it did five years ago; and six fewer seats are up for grabs. We might be appalled, but should not be surprised, if Labour’s vote share falls below 20 per cent, and its contingent at Strasbourg falls to 14-15.
I would not bet too much against such an outcome; but there are two reasons why things might not be so bad. The first is that last year’s result in London demonstrates the risk of predicting the results of elections conducted by proportional representation. Labour stood lower in the polls last May than at the time of the London elections in 2004; and, of course, Ken Livingstone lost to Boris Johnson. But in the elections to London’s Assembly, Labour’s share of the vote was slightly up. Indeed, Labour gained one seat.
Could something similar happen in next month’s European elections? The answer depends not only on Labour’s share of the vote, but on the size and precise distribution of the minor party votes. This brings us to the second reason for caution in making any predictions. In 2004, UKIP won 16 per cent of the vote and 12 seats. They are unlikely to win as many votes or seats this time. Could their decline help to save Labour from catastrophe?
To make sense of the prospects, we need to look at the way we elect MEPs – members of the European parliament. They are elected by the D’Hondt system of proportional representation, region by region. The key calculation is the threshold for each region – the vote a party must obtain to win a seat. The precise figure depends on the exact distribution of votes as well as the number of seats. In the south -east, which elects 10 MEPs, a party will need around 7-8 per cent of the vote to win a seat; in the north-east (three MEPs) the threshold is more than double that.
There will almost certainly be enough UKIP and BNP voters to win seats in most regions – if they were one party instead of two. Last time, remember, UKIP had Robert Kilroy-Silk and Joan Collins to guarantee them publicity, while negotiations over the intended EU constitution made Europe unpopular, and Michael Howard’s Conservative party had little public appeal. UKIP won 16 per cent of the vote and 12 seats. This time, I would expect UKIP’s vote to fall sharply, with many voters returning to the Conservative party. The BNP’s vote is harder to predict. It is possible they will win up to four seats (London, the north-west, Yorkshire & Humberside and the West Midlands) – but equally possible that they will fall just short in each region and win nothing.
For example, consider the West Midlands. If the UKIP/BNP total is 18 per cent and the vote divides equally, neither party wins any seats. If the vote divides two-to-one, then the larger of the two parties wins one seat. In that example, then an uneven division of the nationalist vote maximises their strength at Strasbourg. On the other hand, if their combined vote matches the 23 per cent they won last time, then an even split could give them two seats – while an uneven division keeps them at only one. On such tiny variations depend the fate of the minor parties and, consequently, the number of seats available to the big parties.
If we assume that the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru retain the 17 seats they won last time, then 52 seats will be up for grabs for Labour, Conservative and the nationalists. If UKIP and the BNP together divide the far-right vote fairly evenly, and their combined vote is below 15 per cent (compared with 21 per cent five years ago) they might win no more than six seats between them. That would leave 46 to be shared between Tory and Labour – the same as last time. My rough guess is that these would divide Conservative 29-30 (up 2-3), Labour 16-17 (down 2-3). It would be bad, but no disgrace, for Labour to lose two or three seats in an election where the total across Britain is down six, from 75 to 69.
On the other hand, if the nationalist vote divides more efficiently, and climbs towards 20 per cent, then UKIP and the BNP might win a combined total of 12 or more seats. Labour could then well slip to just 14, or even fewer.