There has been a lot of commentary about David Cameron and his impact on the Conservative party, but what about the new crowd of MPs that could join the green benches if the Tories do win the next election? The current opinion polls point to a significant Conservative lead which, if translated into votes on polling day, could see a substantial new class of MPs entering parliament. But what do we really know about them and the likely impact they could have on public policy?
From the outset, however, let me be clear. This is not a piece about how Labour is destined to lose the next election or a prediction on what seats may change hands. Instead, it is a reality check about the kind of politics and decisionmakers we might have after the next election. If this was Dickens, it would be a piece about the ghosts of Christmas future that, unless the government sorts itself out, we will wake up to on the day after the next election.
The most obvious change that a Cameron government would bring about would be to his own benches. The Conservatives only won 198 seats in 2005, in large part based on the constituencies they clung onto in 1997. Today, the parliamentary Conservative party still looks like the traditional stereotype that has been passed down the generations, with few women and a notable absence of black and younger members.
The election of Cameron started to change that image at the top of the party; the next election could see that trickle down to the rest of the Conservative benches. To achieve a workable parliamentary majority the Conservatives would need to almost double their number of MPs. This would be the largest ever intake of new Conservative MPs and lead to a significantly different parliamentary party.
The Tories would still be a predominantly male parliamentary party – yet there would be significant changes. The potential class of 2010 would see a larger number of women and a few black candidates. They would also be significantly younger than their Conservative predecessors.
The new intake would also lack both the baggage and experience under the last Conservative government. According to academic Philip Cowley, if the Conservatives do achieve a majority of one, just a quarter of the parliamentary party would have served under a previous Conservative administration.
So far the Conservatives have selected 109 women candidates, including their sitting MPs, although only around 30 are in the top 100 marginal seats. This compares to 17 women elected to the Conservative benches at the last election. Although this time we will see the retirement of the redoubtable Ann Widdecombe. High-profile women running in marginal seats include Philippa Stroud (Sutton and Cheam) who runs the Centre for Social Justice, Margot James (Stourbridge) and the journalist Annunziata Rees-Mogg (Somerton and Frome). Annunziata is also the daughter of the former Times editor, William Rees-Mogg, and her brother is also standing for the Conservatives in the neighbouring seat, which suggests it might not all be down to meritocracy.
For the first time, the Conservatives have also selected a number of high-profile black and minority ethnic candidates in winnable and marginal seats. These include Helen Grant in Maidstone who has been selected to replace Ann Widdecombe. Grant is set to become the Conservatives’ first black woman MP, which might be surprising to some as she was a Labour member until 2005. Other notable candidates to watch are youth charity founder Shaun Bailey (Hammersmith) and self-styled ‘black farmer’ Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones (Chippenham).
What do these changes mean for Labour? Even though the majority of the Conservative MPs will still be men, the new crowd will make the argument that the Tories do not look like the country redundant. It is not enough now to go on about 18 years of Tory misrule or that they are out of touch. The new class of Tory MPs simply do not look like the old ones, even though the majority will still be men.
What ideas would the class of 2010 bring to parliament? Despite looking a bit more like the country at large, the new candidates still tend to come from wealthier backgrounds. They also bring a scepticism about public institutions and the state predominantly because they do not have to rely on them. Interviews and surveys reveal a common language that fits in with Cameron’s agenda: decentralisation, promoting the family, reducing the role of government. As former environmentalist and Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park) has put it: ‘I am a Conservative who believes in decentralisation, the human scale, light government and trust.’ It also means that they are a driving force behind flagship Conservative policies to allow private companies much more scope to run schools and dismantle the current education system.
ConservativeHome recently conducted a survey of 150 adopted candidates in marginal seats to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the 1979 Tory victory. The results suggest that the 2010 intake are largely influenced by the legacy of Margaret Thatcher. The survey is interesting in that it reveals candidates’ views on a number of policy areas, in particular on the family. The potential intake of MPs are overwhelmingly Eurosceptic; 85% support more restrictive abortion rights; and 93% support the financial recognition of marriage by the tax system. Another survey showed that 119 out of 120 candidates wanted to see the repeal of the hunting ban.
It might not be very surprising that the new candidates are supportive of Cameron’s plans to introduce tax breaks for married couples. They are also very open about their views on the issue, with Cllr Susan Williams (Bolton) describing the plans as ‘social engineering’. Yet while backing a traditional concept of the family, they also appear in line with the Tory leader’s support of civil partnerships, in contrast to the majority of existing Conservative MPs. This has not stopped some of the new crowd returning to a familiar theme of stigmatising single parents. In the words of Jeremy Moulton (Southampton Test): ‘There are huge problems coming from single-parent families.’ And Philip Milton (Devon North): ‘We seem to be championing the fact that it’s all right to be accepting the second best route at the moment.’
A Guardian survey of candidates last autumn backs the claim that the class of 2010 are socially conservative in outlook. Part of the electoral challenge for Cameron is to position himself closely with the centre ground of public attitudes. In some areas, the new intake are in touch with popular opinion, for instance in the growing scepticism towards European institutions. On others, such as the hunting ban, their opinions appeal more to the traditional Conservative base than wider public opinion.
Why does this matter? A large new intake of Conservative MPs would inevitably shape the underlying form of the government. Within a year or two of a Cameron government these will be the junior ministers and rising stars of the Conservative party. It is important to know what they think and how they will behave on key political issues. While it is likely that an incoming Tory government would initially find much support from its own benches, over time the ideological leanings of its backbenches are also likely to start informing the work of government.