Here are some crumbs of comfort:
• Labour didn’t come fourth in the European elections
• The Tories obtained only 28% – one point more than five years ago
• This was a plague-on-both-your houses election, not simply an anti-government vote
• Funny things happen under proportional representation: Labour will do far better in the coming general election
That’s about it. The truth is that last night was truly awful for Labour. It has to double its vote share at the next general election – and that’s just to have a sporting chance of stopping the Conservatives winning an outright victory. For Labour to win, it must gain 20 percentage points. Only about half of that will come naturally, as we revert to a first-past-the-post battle for power. The rest needs effective campaigning and persuasion, economic recovery and voters crediting the government with steering Britain successfully through the recession. Oh, and party unity would help.
The scale of Labour’s problems emerges from a massive poll of more than 32,000 electors conducted last week by YouGov for Channel Four news. We wanted to analyse the voters of the BNP and other minority parties, and needed a sample large enough to obtain robust data.
One thing we did was to test anecdotal reports that many BNP voters were old Labour sympathisers who felt that the party no longer speaks up for them. It turns out to be true. As many as 59% of BNP voters think that Labour “used to care about the concerns of people like me but doesn’t nowadays”.
What is more worrying for Labour is that this sentiment is shared by millions of voters way beyond the ranks of BNP voters. Overall, 63% of the British public think Labour used to care about their concerns – and only 19% think it does today.
In contrast, just 29% think the Conservatives used to care about their concerns; this figure has climbed to 37% who think they care in the Cameron era.
Yes, Labour has a problem with voters deserting the party for the BNP. But its far bigger problem as it heads towards the next general election is to extinguish the overwhelming public view, reinforced by the scandal over MPs’ allowances, that today’s Labour party is no longer on the side of ordinary voters. And that, more than anything else, is why its vote collapsed to just 16% in the Euro election.
Yes, Labour needs to persuade ordinary people that we’re on their side. That shouldn’t be so difficult to do if a united party hammers home the message that only Labour can see them safely through the economic crisis and that the Tories will make things much worse. However any message we have has to pass through the prism of a personality obsessed, almost totally hostile media, drooling at the prospect of a change of government. There’s a real problem here which we must overcome if we are to stand any chance of restoring our fortunes.
One of the Labour Party’s greatest acheivement was to give ever increasing winter payments to the OAP’s regardless of income. This meant that there was real money in the pocket without the need to pay tax if paid as a pension increase. I am sure if the tories acheive government that will be one of the first things to go. The minimum wage was a real acheivement especially for young people working in Macdonalds on £1.50 and hour, that will also go I am sure. It is only when Labour has the power to govern can real and realistic changes be made but I am convinced that the party members could not see that the government and the Labour Party were one and the same and felt that it was ok to disagree and knock the good agreements and policies. It is obvious that the media know they have the power to dislodge MP’s out of government they are the king makers and are on a feeding frenzy at the moment and it does not bore good when all the knockers start to come out of the woodwork. It feels that the Labour party core members (not all) are tired of its own government and I do not want to wait until we have lost the power for them to realise what a huge amount of good work has been done and more to do. Let us get behind this government and not knock it.
I was shocked to see the BNP getting more than half the ttoal Labour vote in the south west – and roughly a million nationally. For me the return of Labour abstainers to Labour (including many friends) – let alone any prospect of stopping the Tories – rests on Gordon Brown going. Anyone thinking otherwise is in a Labour Party cocoon and should open their ears and eyes. Brown has loser stamped all over him – a shame but true. If we get a new leader who announces an autumn election to follow a major polictical reform – inc PR referendum, this will be cathartic and signify the end of Blair/Borwn and the beginning of a newer Labour. I guess if you asked David cameron he woudl much prefer Gordon to remain at the helm. For very very good reason!
Tim Dwelly’s so-called cure for Labour’s current malaise would be far worse than the disease. A leader change now would open up all the old tribal wounds in the party and precipitate an immediate general election. This would amount to little more than a referndum on MPs salaries which means a Conservative landslide. But that is not all for his sugestions on PR and a referndum are even worse than the above. A referendum on PR would degenerate as most referenda do into a protest against the government and as a result we would probably get some form of PR, guaranteeing all kinds of tiny unrepresentative parties holdng the balance of power. UKIP ( or worse the BNP) making fatuous demands in order to prop up weak alliances.There would be deals, cabals, and politcal horse trading on a scale the UK has thankfully never y witnessed. Just look at the horrific case of Israel. And all becuase of a panic to ditch Brown. No, we need unity now above all and i have a happy feeling we are going to get it.
We simply do not have the time for a leadership challenge. Labour still has a very good story to tell about the last twelve years and has attractive policies for the future, The message about fairness and justice is right on target! Now we need Harriet Harman and her team to spread this message. She may be good on Newsnight but she has been totally ineffective with the general public. As Deputy she should be stomping the streets and telling people exactly what Labour is doing and has done.