Dorset strawberries. Cheshire cheese. Welsh lamb. The sorts of things, according to recent research, that we are increasingly keen to put in our trolleys. Despite the recession the numbers of British shoppers choosing local food continues to rise – 27% of food shoppers reported buying local this year, compared with just 15% in 2006. While it is not without its drawbacks (potentially reducing demand for developing country products, for example), at its best shopping local should provide us with fresher food as well as lower carbon emissions.
But to meet this increased demand for local food and other local products, we need the people to produce them. And ippr’s report, Migration and Rural Economies: Assessing and Addressing Risks, released last month, raises some concerns as to whether we will continue to have the workers we need.
The report examines migration into the UK’s rural economies, shedding light on a significant but under-explored phenomenon. It maps how trends have changed, the roles migrants now play, and what their future role might potentially be. And migration to rural areas has certainly changed. Rural areas now contain much larger numbers of migrants from a greater variety of countries than they did a decade ago. Poles, Filipinos, Zimbabweans and Americans in particular have increased in number, with the number of Poles in rural areas rising a massive 983% over the past 10 years. The picture is not all one of change and growth, however – the Irish remain the largest foreign born rural community, though their numbers have been shrinking.
The economic implications of this migration is significant, though perhaps not in the ways which might be expected. We found that there has been no evidence that migrants have increased unemployment or harmed wages in rural areas as a whole over the last few years (though some particular rural areas may have been affected). Indeed, it suggests that rural migrants have filled labour and skills gaps, driven job creation and boosted productivity, as they tend to be more highly skilled and entrepreneurial than the average Brit. Migrant workers are particularly valuable in rural areas, which suffer from small working populations and a lack of both skilled and unskilled workers. Indeed, some rural sectors, including parts of agriculture, food processing and hospitality, have become reliant on migrant workers in recent years. In sum, the rise in migration to rural areas has been propelled by and supportive of the economy.
Trends, unsurprisingly, have changed since the start of the recession. While demand for local food may be holding up, overall economic demand has dropped, and more people are looking for work. Our evidence suggests migration trends have responded to these changed circumstances, with fewer migrants are arriving in rural areas, and some returning or moving to other countries. Indeed, numbers of EU migrants leaving the UK more than doubled in the 12 months leading up to September 2008, when the recession started to bite.
So where is the problem? How is our desire to eat Dorset strawberries and reduce our carbon footprint threatened by a lack of migrant workers? After all, this analysis suggests that migration responds to economic demand – and if we demand migrant workers pick our fruit, work in our hotels or manage our factories, they will.
The problem lies in the fact that the supply of migrant workers to rural areas may not match demand so effectively in future, for two reasons. First, while economics is central to determining whether people migrate, other issues matter too. And if social issues – particularly the lack of affordable housing in rural areas – are not resolved, the relative attractiveness of the UK may wane.
Second, policy also matters, and current policy measures threaten to make it much more difficult for migrants to move to rural areas. For example, the government is currently planning to abolish the seasonal agricultural workers scheme, which allows migrants from eastern Europe to work in UK agriculture for a couple of months. While it is conceivable that UK workers could be found to do these jobs this summer, when the economy recovers there will be fewer workers available, and the same, or even greater demand for local produce. In fact, in the medium term, Europe-wide labour shortages may mean that we can’t find the lower skilled workers we need within Europe, making opening our borders more widely, rather than shutting them down the appropriate policy response.
If we want to continue eating and buying local, we need to plan ahead, and ensure that the workers we expect to produce these products are willing and able to do so.