This will be the 15th annual conference I’ve been to. I believe it will be the most important for the Labour party since the crucial debate on ‘One Member One Vote’ back in 1993.

That’s not because I expect a cliff-hanger vote on conference floor or a great set-piece debate like we had then. The Partnership in Power rule changes effectively ended those confrontations.

There will be a mini-fight over whether to restore the ‘Contemporary Resolutions’ process scrapped in 2007 but really this just illustrates the irrelevance of the party’s traditional left – initiating a battle over procedures and the right to submit resolutions is hardly an adequate response to the threat of imminent general election defeat. In fact it illustrates an inward-looking and structural rather than political response to our unpopularity in the polls that is politically suicidal. If only it was the case that Labour would leap to a commanding poll lead if we just empowered CLP GCs to start submitting resolutions again!

At the end of the day I would expect the big three unions to reach a deal with No 10 over this. They are serious people who know that their real influence over the next manifesto is bought with the millions of pounds they donate to the party, not exercised in symbolic and ultimately ignorable votes on conference floor.

The real importance of this year’s conference lies in the atmosphere and vibe given off by delegates and particularly MPs to the media. If the bars and fringe meetings are packed with people focused positively on winning their constituencies for Labour, and reacting favourably to the PM’s speech, there is still a chance that we can demonstrate the unity of purpose that might lead to a historic fourth term. If they are packed with people resigned to defeat, plotting against the leader or positioning for the top jobs in opposition, that’s where we will end up and deservedly so.

As last year, the only speech that will count is Gordon’s. If he can pull off another great speech like last year, we may get a third, and hopefully this time sustainable ‘Brown Bounce’. If he doesn’t, then the focus will shift to media analysis of which of the potential heirs’ speeches has best captured the mood of conference floor. I can’t think of a more depressing scenario than extended speculation over which person gets to be Labour’s equivalent of William Hague in the event of a 1997 in reverse.

My advice to new conference-goers:

• Spend as much time on conference floor or in the balcony as possible. You can’t gauge the mood of the party by watching the platform speeches on TV; you need to be in the hall.
• Go to the regional party receptions and the union ones. That’s where you’ll meet real party activists. They start with the London Labour reception on Saturday night at 6pm in the Cambridge Room of the Hilton.
• All the best gossip – and some of the key newsworthy events of conference – can be found in the main bars of the two hotels in the secure zone in the early hours of the morning. Make sure you pace your drinking so you are still alert then!
• Pick fringe meetings that are organised by party activist groups like Progress and its equivalents on the left – the heated debate no longer seen on conference floor happens there.