In less than 50 days world leaders will gather to decide the global community’s response to climate change. The countdown to the negotiations is now underway with no firm deal yet on the table so the prime minister was absolutely right to deliver a stark message about the need for success.
The reality is that global deals always take time and a good deal of rhetoric and bluff. Just because there is now widespread agreement on the scientific evidence behind climate change it does not follow that a new treaty will be agreed in a few weeks time. Despite its importance, Kyoto ultimately failed to unite the international community with the United States and China leading the way with objections.
Today, a new agreement is more important than ever. Even if world leaders agree to limit temperature rises to two degrees many scientists say that will not be enough to prevent irreversible damage. So, Gordon Brown was right to say to the Major Economies Forum that ‘we cannot compromise with the catastrophe of unchecked climate change; so we must compromise with one another.’
The most important test for Copenhagen will be whether it can bring together the developed and developing worlds in a treaty viewed as fair, just and ambitious enough by all. The government is right to link the negotiations to both social justice between countries and a just transition to a new low carbon economy. No deal will be agreed if the talks become dominated with discussions about limiting developing countries from making their own choices about economic growth. Too many green campaigners, however, are still stuck in the rut of limits. For example, how many green groups oppose the use of coal in the UK but have nothing to say on the now weekly spectacle of a new coal power plant opening in China.
There are difficult decisions ahead but climate change is no more challenging than many of the other greater issues that humanity has tackled in its time. The scale of the challenge, however, requires our political leaders to walk large on international stage. The united response to the global downturn and fiscal stimulus demonstrate the way forward. Climate change will require investment in new technology and our energy infrastructure on a scale never seen before. In this way we will be following in the footsteps of Roosevelt and the New Deal; the post-war effort to rebuild Europe; and the more recent stimulus to the world economy. There are countless other examples of human ingenuity in tackling adversity.
Following the expenses scandal and dissatisfaction with the Westminster village it is too easy to forget the grand design of politics and its ability to change the world. And don’t forget the convenient silence of the Tories on this issue. Climate change speaks to a world where government intervention and international co-operation are essential. It is no irony that in the week that Gordon Brown has been addressing the world community of the need for a workable deal, populist Tory MP Douglas Carswell has been revisiting the conspiracy arguments on whether climate change is man-made or not. Similarly, no deal will succeed without the strong voice of Europe working together on this issue, something anathema to David Cameron’s new model army.
I have written previously with some cynicism about the possibility for a deal to be done in time for Copenhagen in December. But we will only fail through timidity. That is why the leadership of our prime minister is so important both in building support at home and in the build up to the negotiations. The government deserve all our support in the weeks ahead as they try and construct a truly ambitious coalition based on a new deal for investment and the construction of a global economy able to cope with the challenge of a changing climate.