On this anniversary of Barack Obama’s historic election observers around the world will feel compelled to use this moment to assess his presidency. It has been a remarkable ten months. One thing is agreed: he has altered the image of the United States around the world. This alone might have won him a Nobel Prize. Obama made some early missteps, including the fracas over his friend Professor Gates’ altercation with the New Haven police, and his badly judged battle with FOX news. These are, however, minor distractions from the three central concerns that will decide the Obama presidency: the economy, the war in Afghanistan, and the battle over universal health care coverage.
Obama inherited the worst economic situation a new president has faced since FDR. Getting his massive stimulus bill passed was an early sign of strong leadership, and if the economy turns around before the end of his term, he will be hailed as a saviour. If not, opponents and voters will punish him. George Bush left him a mess in Iraq and a failing war in Afghanistan. In this case Obama is working more slowly, in an effort to produce clear, reasoned plans. Opponents call it dithering, supporters label it thoughtful. He has no good choices, and whatever path he takes will not win widespread support. (He will likely accede to the generals and increase the US troop strength in Afghanistan, a long term error.) His health care initiative will now almost certainly be passed with Democratic votes only. In this battle Obama has shown resolve and clever leadership, and may actually get the best bill possible given the realities of American politics. While in the short term this will be very contentious, 20 years hence now it will likely be seen as the beginning of a major shift toward the fairer and more comprehensive system of health care needed for generations. From a short-term perspective it is the only one of the three major elements of his first year in office that will fairly be judged a success.
Obama has shown a strong tendency to seek consensus and govern from the middle. He offered an olive branch to the Republican opposition, which shunned it repeatedly. In this way Obama may have marginalised that party, already badly damaged by the 2006 and 2008 elections, corruption scandals, and a disastrous shift to the right. Politically, he has thus succeeded in seizing the crucial middle ground. Should he continue to hold it, he may be able to overcome the difficulties of the economy and Afghanistan. More likely, he and his party will suffer a year from now in the mid-term elections and the second half of his term will be characterised by even more intense partisan attacks than the first. It is understood in this country that we live in interesting times, and Barack Obama appears remarkably cool in the midst of the maelstrom. The tentative evaluation: a decent policy record, a more impressive partisan one.