This week saw the Democratic party in full catastrophe-avoidance mode. Bill Clinton and John Kerry were here to rally supporters on Friday, and Obama himself spoke at a campaign rally in west Boston two days ago. For the president, the stakes could hardly have been higher: the seat was the Democrats’ 60th in the Senate, and had given them a filibuster-blocking majority vital to clearing the final hurdle to healthcare reform.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one in this state. Kennedy himself held the seat for 47 years. In reality, the failures here have been local: Democratic candidate Martha Coakley ran a lifeless and ill-planned campaign, whilst Republican Scott Brown played the perfect insurgency ticket. Keeping big GOP names away, he drove the state in his pickup truck, garnering the support of independents fed up with the Washington machine.
That may be true, but it won’t prevent the fallout from the vote from reaching Obama. By addressing Coakley supporters on Sunday, he staked his personal credibility on victory. Worse, his poorly-delivered speech drew strong heckles from anti-abortion activists amongst an ill-behaved crowd, and strained smiles from a president not accustomed to stumbling. All of that was useful material for Republican storytellers, who have worked relentlessly in recent weeks to dictate their narrative for Obama’s first year. They have seized on the MA senate race as yet more evidence of unease among a public uncomfortable with the way the first term is going.
Currently the most salient point in that argument is the fact that Obama’s approval ratings are lower at this point in the first term than those of any other post-war president except Reagan. One year in, 49% of the public approved of Reagan’s presidency; at the same point, Clinton stood at 54%; Bush senior was at 71%. Obama today is tied with Reagan on 49%, down from 64% on inauguration day last January.
As a snapshot, that may be worrying stuff, but it’s worth stepping back a little if we want to draw broader conclusions. This excellent graphic produced by William Couch and colleagues at CBS suggests that, with presidential approval ratings as with investment funds, past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. Several post-war presidents took substantial early hits to their approval ratings, and went on to secure a second term. Clinton’s fell from 58% to 37% in his first six months; before September 11, Bush junior’s first year high of 63% had fallen to 51%.
So Obama’s ratings today may tell us less about the story of his presidency, and more about which chapter we are in. Taking on an early battle over healthcare was a calculated decision, aimed at capitalising on the momentum of the election, and leaving time to rebuild political capital before second term elections. Unsurprisingly, Obama’s approval ratings took their biggest hit from May to September last year, when talk of death camps filled the airwaves here, and billions were poured into ads by insurance companies. Since then, support for reform has increased (up from 43% to 49% since November), and Obama’s overall approval ratings have been broadly flat.
The bigger, and more stubborn, worry may turn out to be the breakdown of those figures by party affiliation. For a president whose pitch was one of inclusion and bipartisanship, support for Obama is astoundingly divided. The gap between Democrat and Republican approval ratings is currently twice as high as that for Richard Nixon at the height of the Vietnam war. That may become a problem when stood alongside the lack of enthusiasm in the Democratic base. Currently more than three-quarters of Republicans and independents say they are extremely likely to vote, and less than two-thirds of Democrats. That raises difficult questions about whether Obama’s efforts to mend wounds are being wasted, and could be better spent re-energising his base.
The reason Massachusets went Republican is because Obama’s entire policy agenda has been exposed as one giant bailout swindle on economics, and one giant marxist experiment in behaviour modification on domestic policy.
The American people do not like totalitarian governments, and anyone who tries to impose fascism on America better watch their back, because when the sleeping giant fully awakes, it will not be pretty for the culprits.
The reason Massachusets went Republican is because Obama’s entire policy agenda has been exposed as one giant bailout swindle on economics, and one giant marxist experiment in behaviour modification on domestic policy.
The American people do not like totalitarian governments, and anyone who tries to impose fascism on America better watch their back, because when the sleeping giant fully awakes, it will not be pretty for the culprits.
The previous comment is of course absolute crap but in my experience it is typical of the right-wing mindset in America at the moment. With huge amounts of dollars behind them Republicans of this persusion, aided by their media outlets, are rapidly brainwashing disaffected Democrats as well as middle-ground Republican. It will take a huge economic turn-around accompanied by the dynamism of the original Obama campaign to stop them
Stan
So what qualifies you for refuting my assertion that the Obama presidency is a giant swindle on the American people?
Did you not see the news about the AIG bailout of Goldman Sachs which Tim Geithner is up to his neck in?
And what about the so-called “healthcare reform”, itself an excuse for savage austerity and government intrusion in every aspect of the life and death of Americans? Itself a direct consequence of the bailout of Wall St which Obama and his financial backers like George Soros (friend of yours?) made sure went through.
Propaganda? I don’t think so.
It’s time you “progressives” (whatever that means) got your facts straight and took a look at the big picture.
JM
Hey Stan Rosenthal-
You write “with huge amounts of dollars behind them Republicans….”. You might want to read the Declaration of Independance and then figure out how Americans would react to a government manipulating trillions of dollars behind closed doors…while Congress ignores its consituents. No amount of Republican spending could awaken the US the way Obama’s arrogant, non-transparent government has. EL
Obama has finally become irrelevant. Three more years of this to endure for the rest of us. The American people are speaking loud and clear through the Massachusetts Senate race plus the governorships in NJ and Virginia…wake up, Progressives; stop making rationalizations and spins about the outcomes of these very relevant races. One year down and three to go and Obama is out!
there is no president that ever stepped in the pile crap bush left us. it’s easy to blame obama-or pick a name? the truth it we all know the truth. gwb destroyed our country in 8 years. period. anyone trying ideas to undo that will be vilified-and republicans are simply furious because they lost and need foxnews to rant about it all day. truth is, when our president wins, we, as americans are to recognize the majority has spoken and he is the commander in chief. and that’s what usually happens-but the republicans tried so many disgusting ideas from sara palin to joe the (unlicensed) plumber with no game plan. they were stabbing in the dark.
they knew, more, after bush, it was hopeless, but they brought other idiots that don’t know how many homes they own and defines huntin’ by shooting wolves with a rifle from a helicopter and can see russia from her state- so she must know all about russians and foreign policy.
The Progressives appear to be the angry ones calling names and attacking people like a regular Joe who just wanted his government to hear his thoughts and possibly represent him.
Hey M:
I hate to break it to you but George Bush did not buy millions of homes he couldnt afford and he did not chair Senate oversite committees that were charged with monitoring Fannie & Freddie Mac. Obama won in a crisis created over 30 years by both parties. Stop you malicious, moveon.org finger pointing and jump on board with real Americans. Your comments are vile and misguided. Obama is a fraud – get used to it. EL
Maybe Obama is going to wake up ‘the sleeping giant’ of right wing reaction, who say everything is fine don’t change it. Health care reform is not about those people who are ok and can fend for themselves it is about those who can’t. That is who elected Obama, change and fairness are on the political agenda. It is a fight and one thats need political courage to do and Obama has lots of courage.