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Lewis Baston Articles

Farage to the test

The weight of expectations in this month’s European parliament elections is heaviest on Ukip, writes Lewis Baston The 2014 European parliament elections have been among the most eagerly anticipated sets of European elections to take place in Britain – if one can use...
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Time’s arrow and the pre-election polls

Imagine, for a moment, that there was no Fixed Term Parliaments Act. How would we be assessing the political situation in the late spring of 2014? By past standards, we are very late in the parliament, and everything would be seen in the light of election timing....
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The last big test

Labour should be aiming for steady progress rather than huge gains in next month’s local elections The European and local elections next month will be the last big test of UK-wide public opinion before the general election in May 2015. The headline result from these...
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Avoid psephological apophenia!

One of the problems of writing about opinion polls is that the more startling, extraordinary and news-worthy a poll finding is, the more likely it is to be wrong. The fact that most of them are commissioned by the media accentuates the tendency to highlight the...
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