All the polling evidence shows that the next election will be a referendum on whether Labour’s public service reform agenda has delivered. However, despite investment going in, there seems to be little improvement in public perceptions. Our research has revealed the worrying existence of the ‘I’ve been lucky syndrome.’
In short, more and more people are having positive encounters with NHS, schools and public services. However, instead of making a connection between their personal experiences and changes brought about by Labour, voters are dismissing these encounters as fortunate aberrations.
Why?
First, this is the result of the breakdown of trust between politicians and voters. People are instinctively wary of ‘spin’ and are inclined to see positive encounters as a matter of luck, rather than evidence of reform working.
Second, voters are bombarded daily by negative media coverage on the state of public services. Faced with the need to attract attention in a crowded media space, newspapers focus on ‘horror stories’. A perception is created that in every hospital pensioners are left to shiver on trolleys in dirty corridors, or that in every school unruly kids run amok in dilapidated classrooms.
As people are ten times more likely to share ‘bad’ stories rather than ‘good’ ones, this represents a major threat to the government. In addition, Labour has failed to manage expectations. The rhetoric of ‘Things can only get better’ and ’24 hours to save the NHS’ led to the powerful perception that Labour could revolutionise public services overnight. Though voters may have positive encounters, initial expectations of what Labour would bring about are still far greater than the current reality.
What can be done to remedy this? As a start, Labour could focus communications on the small number of achievements voters do credit the government for. Our research has shown that the government is seen to have reduced class sizes in primary schools, and is praised for introducing the child tax credit and the minimum wage. Campaigners need to claim credit for initiatives that have resonated with voters, and aim to extrapolate beyond them to map out a ‘journey’ for public service reform, with demonstrable signs of progress so that people recognise them when they see them.
Labour could also consider setting up an independent statistics agency, separate from the government. Politicians face the issue that all figures they use are dismissed as ‘spin’. Where the Tories were accused of manipulating unemployment figures, Labour is perceived to be fudging waiting lists numbers. Our research has shown that the Audit Commission and the Food Standards Agency are viewed as impartial. Following the same model, an independent statistics agency could help remove the measurement of policy effectiveness away from partisan politics.
Labour also needs to engage with those shaping opinion in society. As people increasingly mistrust conventional authority, they turn instead to people they know for views and attitudes. Frontline staff can play a major role in overcoming scepticism and cynicism. While people may be sceptical about a cabinet minister, they do trust the nurse or teacher they know. As a result, policymakers must engage with frontline delivery people in shaping the reform agenda.
Mirroring the success of grassroots activism, Labour must also meet the growing demands of ordinary people to be involved in decision-making. This is not just about consulting with people, but rather getting people to work with policy makers on shaping solutions. We recently conducted workshops for the Cabinet Office and the Department of Health where patients worked with healthcare professionals to identify priorities on policy. Collaborative forums such as these can actively involve people in the decisionmaking process, and start to empower people to be involved in the reform process. Confronted with a major issue around trust and a harsh media climate, the ‘I’ve been lucky syndrome’ can appear to be an intractable issue. Yet, through a combination of authenticity, openness and empowerment, Labour can reconnect with voters.