Where there was despair, David Cameron has brought hope. Many in the media and on both sides of the House of Commons have come to believe that the crowd-pleasing toff’s touchy-feely Toryism marks the beginning of a Tory resurgence. But, will the next decade be Cameron’s?
The early polling shows that the new Conservative leader has made significant progress over the old one, Michael Howard. ICM report a four per cent increase in Tory-voting intention since Cameron took over, and Labour’s three per cent lead at the general election has turned into a deficit of around five per cent. In May, Cameron pulled ahead of Tony Blair as a ‘good leader’ according to Populus, scoring 5.11 on a 10-point scale, compared to Blair’s 4.72. In Opinion Leader Research focus groups, Cameron is often described as energetic, fresh and a significant improvement on previous Tory leaders; and he seems to be performing particularly well with crucial women swing-voters.
However, reports of a Tory rebirth have been greatly exaggerated. Outperforming Howard is a necessary condition for success, not a sufficient one. Assuming a universal swing, the Tories need a poll lead of around 10 points to scrape a two-seat victory. As Cameron’s honeymoon period comes to an end, his average margin remains five points below that threshold. His poll performance is similar to that of IDS at this stage, and eclipsed by William Hague.
The indifference of Cameron’s poll performance is revealed when contrasted with the state of public opinion after the 1992 election. By this stage in the post-1992 electoral cycle, MORI and Gallup polled Labour’s lead at between 15 and 24 per cent. From that point until the 1997 landslide, the average Labour lead across polls from six polling companies was 23 per cent.
Cameron’s attempt to earn a New Labour-scale lead borrows heavily from the Millbank handbook. While he has eschewed the fundamental and lengthy philosophical debates that under-girded New Labour, the former PR man appears to be reveling in his use of its marketing techniques. As Alastair Campbell wryly observed, it is ironic that a party that spent the last decade raging at the evils of spin-doctors have now elected one as their leader.
Unfortunately for Cameron, the tactics that worked wonderfully for Blair in the last decade are far less suited to the next one. An increasingly sophisticated and exasperated electorate is deeply sceptical of politicians claiming to be all things to all people. Evidence of hypocrisy is pounced on. Footage of Cameron cycling to work provided a strong image of a new sort of environmentally conscious politician. Having a chauffer drive his shoes and briefcase 10 yards behind provided an even stronger image. This story has provided a memorable and laughable anecdote that has locked into people’s minds, and sowed a seed of doubt about many of Cameron’s claims.
To be successful in the next decade, politicians will have to go beyond that sort of headline-chasing stunt and show that they can balance listening to the public with strong leadership. This is a challenge to Cameron, whose image is currently narrowly focused and lacks steel. When voters are asked in focus groups what sort of drink Cameron would be, he comes out as an alcopop: sweet, lacking in substance and with a surprisingly nasty bite. An Opinion Leader Research poll of ‘movers and shakers’ found that, while he scored well on being a good communicator (3.8 out of five), charismatic (3.5) and creative (3.4), he scored poorly on being effective (2.9), a good manager (2.9), or trustworthy (2.7).
With Blair’s job satisfaction ratings bumping along at record lows, these weaknesses are not particularly damaging at the moment. However, in the next decade, the key political battle for a Tory leader will not be with Blair, but with Gordon Brown. Here, Cameron has much work to do. Despite his charm offensive, he has not established a significant lead over Brown even on his own most positive personality traits, and consistently trails Brown on measures of leadership. While a MORI poll in June gave fresh-faced Cameron a margin of just four per cent on being ‘in touch’, an ICM poll gave Brown a 10 per cent lead on ‘understands people like me’, and a 32 per cent lead on being ‘tough’.
Cameron has tried to create an image of himself as forward-looking, in-touch and refreshing. This has cut through to some extent and people are more willing to listen to the Tory message. However, this willingness is highly conditional and powered as much by dissatisfaction with Labour as robust positive attitudes to Cameron. If he is to turn this promise into lasting resurgence, he has to demonstrate he is much more than a nice guy who ‘talks the talk’.